How My 2025 Ukraine War Predictions Are Holding Up
We’ve just wrapped up the first quarter of 2025, and I thought it might be a good time to check in on how my predictions for the year are faring. So far, not bad. I’ve been on point with the negotiations, the battlefield, and even Tesla’s stock price. One prediction that’s missed the mark (and hopefully will stay that way) is Russia’s production of combat vehicles, though that could change if a ceasefire gives them breathing room to refit.
You can find my original predictions in full on my Substack post [here], if you're curious.
Peace Negotiations in 2025
What I predicted:
"Ultimately, these negotiations will break down, any ceasefire will be broken (by both sides), and the talks will probably wrap up by March."
What has happened:
By March 30th, the Trump-Putin bromance had soured. Trump was reportedly "pissed off" at Putin over rhetoric that the Zelensky government should be replaced, by all things, the completely feckless United Nations.
Although negotiations did not completely break down by the end of March, cracks were beginning to emerge. On April 1st, Reuters reported, "Senior Trump administration officials have discussed in recent days the likelihood that the U.S. will be unable to secure a Ukraine peace deal in the next few months." The article noted that many experts believed that Putin was unlikely to move off his "maximalist" demands while he thought he was winning on the battlefield. Also, in early April, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said they would know "in a couple of weeks" if Russia was serious about negotiation, hinting that the administration is prepared to place a deadline on the talks.
As a side note, regarding the Special Envoy to the negotiations, Keith Kellogg, I wrote, "Keith Kellogg is a terrible pick to represent the United States in any Ukraine peace process." As of late March, it appears Trump has completely sidelined Keith Kellogg, replacing him with Trump's golf buddy, Ukraine-illiterate Steve Witkoff. It's not a great pick either, but it's slightly better than Kellogg.
The Battlefield in 2025
On Kursk:
What I said: "The Russians will take back all the currently Ukrainian-occupied territory in Russia." At the time, the only Ukraine-occupied part of Russia was in the Kursk oblast. By mid-March, Russia had taken back almost the entire Kursk salient, and Putin paid a celebratory visit to the central town of Sudzha.
On Ukrainian offensive operations:
What I said: "Ukraine will attempt to mount two major maneuver offensives in late spring or summer. The first one will be in the Russian border area, similar to the Kursk excursion, but it will be in Belgorod." In mid-November, the Ukrainians did, in fact, invade Russia in Belgorod. What initially appeared to be a probing action, the Ukrainians are reinforcing and advancing in the oblast. Yet, it's still too early to call this a "major offensive."
On Russian armored vehicles:
What I said: "In 2025, the Russians will not be assaulting exclusively with SUVs and scooters. The SUV trend we're seeing will reverse." As of early April, this does not seem to be happening. Russia doesn't seem to have any armored vehicles and is still attacking on golf carts, civilian vehicles, and motorcycles. See this video.
Other Predictions
On the Russian economy:
What I said: "I believe that by Christmas next year, the ruble will be exactly the same as it is now, around 100 rubles per US dollar." As of early April, the Russian currency market is doing relatively well, with the ruble at around 85 per US dollar. Trump's pro-Russian attitude has seemingly buoyed Russian optimism. Admittedly, this may be a temporary situation as the negotiations tank and Trump enacts harsher sanctions.
On Telsa's stock price:
What I said: "My last prediction for 2025 is that Tesla's stock price will fall to $250 per share (split or negative split-adjusted)." When I wrote that in late December 2024, Tesla was at $430 per share. As of early April, Tesla's stock price was $243, with it getting as low as $222 in March. It looks like most of the blue-haired, save-the-planet, windmill-loving, electric-everything liberals aren't too happy with Musk's Trump alliance, or his Nazi salutes.
Thus far, my other predictions have yet to be supported or refuted. Many of them, like Ukraine Will Expand Its Strategic Air Attacks, depend on whether this war continues (although the announcement in mid-March of a Ukrainian drone that goes a remarkable 3000km seems to support that hypothesis).
Final Note:
I’ve had a lot of people asking where the weekly newsletter went. Most of my commentary now lives on the Flash Traffic Podcast—three episodes a week diving deep into Ukraine war developments. If you're interested, it is available on my Substack [here] or Spotify [here] (or anywhere you get podcasts).