We Need to Talk about Gen Z: This Week in Ukraine
Strife with the top general, corruption, sinking a Russian warship, and more!
1. And Now, We Must Part
This week a number of Western and Ukrainian media sources were reporting the imminent dismissal of Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, General Valery Zaluzhny. Political strife between Zelensky and Gen Z seemed to have came to a head in November after Zaluzhny was caught telling the truth about the war in an Economist article, admitting that the conflict had become a stalemate. I have spoken with many Ukrainian generals and colonels, and one thing I’ve noticed is most of them have a tendency, in what I consider a very Soviet manner, to follow the party line.
The internet is rife with speculation that Gen Z will run for president. As popular as he is with the troops, I’m dubious if he has the charisma to defeat Zelensky. And unfortunately if the tide of this war doesn’t change, by the time Ukraine eventually holds elections, there may not be that many soldiers left to vote. Regardless, it would favor Zelensky to use Zaluzhny as a scapegoat for Ukraine’s battlefield malaise. In hindsight and from a purely political perspective, he should have fired Gen Z after Ukraine’s calamitous Mala Tokmachka attack in June.
2. $40 Million Found While Dumpster Diving
This week Ukrainian officials released information on an investigation that found that government officials stole $40 million intended for the purchase of artillery shells. Lauded by some as proof that Ukraine’s anti-corruption efforts are working, to me it’s another indicator of the ongoing crooked-nature of the Ukrainian government. Where there’s smoke there’s fire, and corruption-wise Ukraine has been a burning dumpster fire since declaring independence from the USSR in 1991. One trip to the private zoo on former-president Victor Yanukovich’s now-nationalized sprawling estate outside Kyiv will remind you of the difficulties of reforming a country that had capitalism suddenly thrust upon it.
3. $54 Billion Rubber Duck as a Life Preserver
The European Union thwarted opposition from its most cantankerous member, Victor Orban from Hungary, and agreed to give Ukraine €50 billion ($54 billion). Although, this capital will not be going to direct military aid, it will be going to bolster their government operations, including those of the task force charged with investigating the whereabouts of any “accidentally misplaced” European aid funds. Nevertheless, this show of Western largesse isn’t enough to even nudge the needle toward Ukrainian victory.
4. Mirror Imaging
On Monday a drone from an Islamic militant group killed three and wounded at least 40 Americans in an outpost in Jordan. The jihadists were apparently funded, trained, and equipped by Iran. The Biden administration will now attempt to deliver a response that is severe enough to deter Iran from future shenanigans, yet measured enough to prevent the entire region from imploding. Basically, Iran is conducting a proxy war, and we don’t like it. Does any of this sound familiar?
This is pretty much what the West is doing to Russia, albeit on a much larger scale. America’s frustration with Iran can give us some insight into Putin’s thinking, some “strategic empathy” if you will. Imagine if Iran gave its proxies Stinger missiles to start downing US helicopters and jets, or ATACMS missiles to hit our command posts. The next day Lindsey Graham would be threatening to nuke Tehran. Don’t get me wrong, I love that we are giving things to Ukrainians that they are using to kill Russians, and I think we should be giving way more. But, to think that the West doesn’t need to be careful how we do that, and consider Russia’s perspective while arming Ukraine, is pure geopolitical hubris.
As an aside, it seems the drone attack was facilitated by confusion over whether the incoming drone was friend or foe. This happens constantly now in Ukraine, you don’t know if it’s yours until it’s too late.
5. “Jack, I want you to draw me like one of your French Warships”
The best news to come out of Ukraine this week was that the Ukrainians sunk another Russian ship in the Black Sea. The Ukrainian navy used a number of remote-controlled Unmanned Surface Vessels (large jet-ski looking boats packed with explosives) to completely sink the Ivanovets missile corvette off the northwestern coast of Crimea. In this video, you can see USVs repeatedly hitting the ship, one of which drives into the gaping hole left by its predecessor. By the end of the video, the ship is doing a full-Titanic nose dive.
6. [Podcast] Throwing Fabergé Eggs at Crows
On Thursday the Ukrainians attempted to hit another oil refinery inside Russia, apparently with a drone. The Russian’s were defending the site with one of their more lavish air-defense systems, the S-400. One long-range Ukrainian drone probably costs around the same as a similar Iranian Shahed drone, or about $20k. One missile from an S-400 probably costs $1 million (while each US Patriot missile costs over $4 million). This cost imbalance is clearly unsustainable for the Russians. In the end, war (at the strategic, operational, and tactical level) comes down to economics, the core of national power. In theory, the stronger a country’s economy, the stronger its military capability.
Now, forget about all that. This week’s podcast comes from those war hawks at NPR: How to transform a war economy for peacetime. It’s a short (10 minutes each), interesting (yes, really) series on defense spending. What I got out of this podcast was no matter where they put it, the government is going to do a poor job spending our taxes. Oh, and as a bit of a non sequitur jammed in at the end of the podcast, climate change is the biggest threat to national security, of course.
7. [Video] Play Silly Games, Win Silly Prizes
One saying about war goes something like “days of boredom, punctuated by seconds of sheer terror.” Soldiers will find activities to keep themselves occupied in the field (in Ukraine, the mortar team I hung-out with had a PlayStation). In this week’s video, we see a Russian soldier playing a fun little game of tag with a Ukrainian FPV drone to pass the time (what little time he has left).