War’s Endless Summer: This Week in Ukraine
Trading strategic strikes, a lost F-16, the wisdom of John McCain, Belarus threatening suicide, and more.
1. Eye for an Eye
We may have reached another milestone in the war. Ukraine’s ability to destroy strategic targets inside Russia is hitting its stride. This week, Ukraine set ablaze the Atlas oil depot in Rostov and the Zenit oil depot in the Kirov region (930 miles from the border). Last week, Ukraine attacked Moscow with drones. The Kavkaz oil depot near Proletarsk, Rostov region, stopped burning after 11 days. Since June, Ukraine has attacked at least 13 Russian oil facilities. The Ukrainian long-range threat has come into its own, and Putin should be worried.
The timing of this strategic threat could not have come at a better time. This week, Russia launched its largest missile and drone attack since the beginning of the war. It is possible that this attack was in retribution for Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk. Regardless, now that Ukraine has a significant strategic strike capability, Putin might want to rethink his strategy of attacking civilian targets. Russia and Ukraine may be on the cusp of a slow-motion, drone-based, mutually assured destruction.
The Biden administration, fearing higher gas prices in an election year, hates these oil facility attacks, but it seems to have acquiesced in the short term. Perhaps it has no choice. Or, perhaps Biden will pressure Zelensky to stop these attacks in exchange for allowing the use of Storm Shadow, SCALP, and ATACMS missiles to attack targets inside of Russia. Zelensky is visiting Washington this week to make his case for allowing Ukraine to use them to strike targets inside of Russia.
Storm Shadow and SCALP? Aren’t those a joint British and French missile system, you say? Why would Biden have any say in allowing Ukraine their use? Great questions. According to the Financial Times this week, the targeting of the missile is dependent on US strategic intelligence. The Biden administration refuses to allow intelligence to be used for this purpose. I have no words for how terrible the British and French intelligence community must be. Ok, one word: embarrassing.
However this works out for Ukraine in the short term, Ukraine’s attacks inside Russia will continue to increase. Currently, everything within 1,000 kilometers of Ukraine is within its range. Eventually, Russia will figure out how easy it is to prevent these slow drones. Ukraine has been doing fine destroying Russian Shahed drones. A technical (pickup truck with a machine gun in the back) is more than sufficient. The time the Russians figure this out is about the time Ukraine will be mass producing its turbojet cruise missile drones. And the cat-and-mouse game will begin again.
2. An Unfortunate Loss
This month, Ukraine finally received F-16s. This week, Ukraine lost their first F-16. The cause is unknown, but there are only four possible reasons for the crash. First, the Russians shot it down. This is unlikely, as the mission of the F-16s is restricted to shooting down cruise missiles and Shahed drones well within Ukraine’s borders. It was during the massive Russian fusillade early this week that the plane and its pilot met their demise. There were at least 200 (probably more like 350) bogeys flying in the Ukrainian airspace during the attacks. This makes for a complex situation.
Which brings us to the next possible explanation: the Ukrainians shot it down, most probably with a Patriot. Given the chaos of the Russian attack, this is a strong possibility. Adding to this fratricide hypothesis is that the US is now involved in the investigation. I speculate they are combing the Patriot’s data to determine if it fired on the F-16.
The third possibility is pilot error. Given the pilot's relatively low level of training and experience (in this particular airframe), it’s a plausible scenario. Lastly, a mechanical failure may have occurred. We will have to wait for further information, but this is a sad week for Ukraine. At least we can take solace in the fact that Russia loses planes all the time (this week, they lost another SU-34 fighter bomber). Unfortunately, this departed F-16 won’t be the last.
3. He Was One of the Good Ones
Six years ago this week, John McCain pushed open the doors of Valhalla and took his spot beside other great warriors who know that appeasing the violent only leads to more violence. Here’s the prescient McCain from a BBC interview he did in September of 2014, a few months after the Maidan revolution and the illegal Russian annexation of Crimea:
“Vladimir Putin's ambitions were very well known to me and to others. He knew that once [Victor] Yanukovych left, he had to take Crimea because of Sevastopol. Then he tried the separatists. That didn’t work. Then he armed the separatists. That didn’t work. Then he sent in thousands of Russian troops. The fact is that they were slaughtering Ukrainians. There were hundreds killed, thousands in the hospitals. It's terrible. Petro Poroshenko [President of Ukraine prior to Zelensky] had no choice but to agree to a ceasefire. What will happen? I predicted to you that it will be another step in Vladimir Putin's strategy to separate eastern Ukraine from Ukraine. And perhaps a land bridge to Crimea. No, it is a very bad result, and again, we would not send weapons to the Ukrainians when they were begging for them. We wouldn’t even give them intelligence. Because we did not want to "provoke" Vladimir Putin. By showing weakness, we provoked Vladimir Putin.”
4. Give Me Some Sugar
I am convinced that if you are stalked by an FPV (First-Person View) drone, there is only one way to stay alive (and no, it’s not headbutting the drone, but close): take off all your clothes and surrender to the drone. If you're lucky, they will send a Mavic drone to drop surrender instructions. If not, at least you’ll make one hell of a Ukrainian promotional video.
This week, a new method to detect the presence of enemy drones has surfaced. The Ukrainians are using trained dogs to detect the sound of drones. The dogs can hear the drone's sound up to 700 meters away. At this detection distance, you will have just enough time to start taking off your clothes, but you better hurry.
A better way to detect drones might be a “sugar cube.” This small electronic device detects the signal from the drone and can classify the drone type and distance. This device might give you enough time to get to the bunker. But make sure it has solid netting on the entrance, or that FPV drone will follow you into the depths of hell. You can always try to hide from an FPV, but your best bet, of course, is to not be anywhere near them.
5. Belarus to the Rescue?
Is the war about to expand into Belarus? This week, Belarus sent almost 20,000 troops (out of a total of around 60,000) to the Ukrainian border in what it’s calling an “exercise.” Belarus is a vassal state of Russia, and the Lukashenko regime almost entirely depends on Putin. So, in his time of need, it makes sense that Belarus will try to assist by distracting Ukraine.
It is a dangerous game for Lukashenko. The regime in Belarus is in a precarious state. After Lukashenko rigged the 2020 presidential elections, there were mass protests of hundreds of thousands. The regime promptly quashed the resistance at the end of a truncheon. Deploying the Belarusian army to Ukraine would be a perfect opportunity for a destabilizing revolution.
What is probably happening is a feint to distract Ukraine. I can’t believe Lukashenko would risk military action. A Belarus incursion across the border would cause problems for Ukraine, but it could be disastrous for Lukashenko. Revolutionary groups are just waiting for their chance. The situation in Kursk may become more dire for the Russians after the throngs of poorly trained conscripts run headlong into Ukrainian defenses, necessitating actual Belarusian physical assistance. Until then, this troop buildup is just sound and fury.
6. [Video] Reality
For this week's video, I could have picked the one of a bear running down the middle of the Kerch Bridge through traffic. As much as I appreciate the symbolism, I decided to go with a promotional video of Ukrainians blowing things up and shooting people. Sometimes, people need to be reminded that you never bring your snowflake sensitivities to a gunfight. Slava SSO!
As usual, great annalysis this week!! As per Belorus entering the fray- not happening. 6 km from my place is being built such a 'no-mans land' that all 20,000 of those unfortunate Belorusians would never get even past the well planned and costructed no-mans land.