The Rules of the Game

It Is time to accept the rules and win the war in Ukraine. The West does not need to cross any further “red lines.” Victory is within our control.

Russia believes war has no laws and no rules. Rape, murder, torture, radiological disaster, and ecological catastrophe are all acceptable, even desirable methods of winning the war. Because this evil exists, Ukraine is desperate for survival. This war is an existential threat to everyone and everything that will be put under Russian control if Ukraine loses. If the Russian atrocities in the early phases of the war in the war are any indication, the retaliation for Ukrainians resisting Russia for a still unknown number of years and killing tens of thousands of Russian soldiers will be unthinkable. Thousands will be murdered or shipped to corrective labor camps in the Donbas. Children not hidden away in cellars or sent to live with expats in places like Poland will be absconded to Russia and reprogrammed. Ukrainian natural resources and agriculture will be stolen, and a vengeful Putin will ring in a new Ukrainian Holodomor. I wish this were an exaggeration, but the result of Ukraine losing will probably be much worse than this.

The West does not conform to an ideology of unconstrained war. It conforms to reasonable moral standards, including the idea that some battlefield advantages are not worth risking a nuclear holocaust, regardless of how minute the possibility. Even with Volodymyr Zelensky personally presenting his “Victory Plan” in Washington this week, it appears the Administration is refusing to allow deep strikes into Russia with US weapons such as the ATACMS missile. Not that Ukraine particularly needs ATACMS right now, as this week it conducted its fourth widely successful attack on another ammo depot deep inside Russia using drones.   

Also this week, Putin announced a change in Russia’s nuclear doctrine, saying that Russia should be allowed to use nuclear weapons if attacked by a nation backed by a nuclear power. At what point does it become prudent to acknowledge the ruler of a country that has over 5,500 nuclear weapons? Just because the West called his bluff on numerous “red lines” does not mean an actual red line does not exist. Putin’s previous behavior does not guarantee future Russian acquiescence.

The good news is the West does not need to cross any more red lines. At this point in the war, the rules of the game are well-defined, and the West can easily lead Ukraine to a total victory.

The Rules of the game are clear. The West will not provide personnel to fight Russians directly. The West will not allow Ukraine to attack into Russia with Western missiles. And, more tacitly, the West will not introduce any new capability (e.g., cyber attacks, F-35s, SM-3 missiles) into the war. Ukraine will operate within the Kursk salient as Russia loses thousands of soldiers attempting to dislodge the Ukrainians. That’s it. Honestly, these rules greatly favor the West and Ukraine.  

Within these boundaries, the West has nearly infinite possibilities of defeating Russia without the fear of nuclear escalation. First and most importantly, the economic power of the collective West far surpasses that of Russia. According to the World Bank, the combined 2023 GDP of the EU and the US was around $45 trillion, while Russia’s was around $5.8 trillion, with a large percentage coming from oil. The West can thwart Russia’s primary means of revenue by shutting oil and refinery loopholes, such as the West buying refined Russian oil from Turkey. The West could supply more direct monetary support to the government of Ukraine so it can focus its tax revenue on its military. In a war of attrition, Russia simply has no possibility of victory against the full might of the West.

The West’s economic might is not its only weapon. Its military is far superior to Russia’s. For example, in 2024, NATO had 22,000 total aircraft versus 4,800 for Russia. Do these numbers directly equate to combat power for Ukraine? No. But this does speak to the idea that even with massive contributions directly to Ukraine, NATO would have more than enough combat power to defeat whatever might be left of Russia. In the long run, it could supply unlimited conventional munitions and equipment, almost all of which are, or could be, used inside Russia proper. We could provide Ukraine with what they really need (artillery shells, Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, Javelins, and small drones) and less worthless junk they do not need (expensive Switchblade drones, Abrams tanks, F-16s). The West can provide direct investment in Ukraine’s military-industrial complex, including transferring weapons technology. Also, the West can provide endless strategic, operational, and tactical intelligence. There is still plenty the West can do within the bounds of the current rules to defeat Russia militarily.  

Most importantly, the West can provide all of this to Ukraine clandestinely. There is no need to announce anything or admit to anything. The West can deny and deflect, and conduct operations without public pronouncement or the Kremlin’s approval. The US went to great lengths to conceal the support it gave the mujahideen to fight and defeat the Soviets in Afghanistan during the 1980s. The West has the ability to quietly take its gloves off and pound Russia into submission.

Using ATACMS to strike deeper within Russia would be a welcomed capability that would benefit Ukraine, but it doesn’t need it. With the West’s support, Ukraine can defeat Russia within the currently defined rules of the game. The West only needs to exercise the necessary political will. And if it doesn’t? If it allows Russia to win? What does that say about the strength of modern liberal society, that it can be defeated through sheer human capital and an authoritative command structure? It will not bode well for Taiwan, given China has a surfeit of both. What will a Ukrainian defeat say about the resolve of the West, which is committed to protecting a people, only to abandon them to evil? And, what of the moral fiber of the West that it watched this evil unravel and failed to do everything in its power to prevent it? Victory is within the West’s grasp, and it needs only to reach out and choke the life out of Russia.