This Week in Ukraine
1. Deny, Deny, Deny
The biggest success for the Ukrainians this year has been in strategic denial. No, I don't mean the early pontifications of Zelensky, Zaluzhnyi, and others on the success of this summer's offensive. I'm talking about area denial, and Ukraine has exceeded expectations, especially over water. They've been surprisingly effective at using the British Storm Shadow (or the French SCALP version) cruise missile to destroy Russian ships at port in the Black Sea (jealous, Taurus?), denying the use of the water and pushing the Russian Navy eastward. This week Ukraine was similarly successful in destroying a $330 million A-50 radar monitoring jet (equivalent to a NATO AWACS), and an IL-22 command and control plane over the Sea of Azov. It is possible the Ukrainians pushed-up a Patriot PAC-2/3 system to ambush the planes--similar to the tactic they used to destroy three SU-34 fighter-bombers in December and a bevy of Russian aviation near Bryansk in September. The Drive does a great job of breaking down the A-50 incident here. I believe attacking these expensive, strategic assets might be Ukraine's best possibility of forcing Russia to negotiate. Next up—how about the Russian's North Sea Fleet?
2. A Negotiated Settlement
After the first few months of the war, Ukraine had shown an unexpectedly successful resistance to Putin's invasion. Russian troops were withdrawing from Kyiv, and it appears both sides were prepared to negotiate. Then the atrocities of Bucha came to light. "On sidewalks, in ditches and in improvised graves, there were other bodies with their hands tied. Some bore the signs of torture: poked out eyes, cut-off fingers." Yaroslav Trofimov's insightful WSJ article, Did Ukraine Miss an Early Chance to Negotiate Peace With Russia? provides a snapshot into the initial thinking on both sides of the table, and it may presage the difficulties of an eventual negotiation.
3. Cluster F**k
Western military funding to Ukraine is the only way that country will survive. Unfortunately for Ukraine, Western sensitivities contribute to the politics of military aid. Cluster munitions, also known by the acronym DPICM, represent a difficult dichotomy in fighting the Russians. On one hand, the roughly 2% dud-rate means that kids are going to lose limbs to these small, scattered bombs (and also to all the other millions of unexploded ordinance) for decades after the war. On the other, cluster bombs are killing the most Russians, and killing a lot of Russians might be the only way to end this war, especially now that Ukraine seems to be converting to a defensive position for the long haul. John Nagl and Dan Rice explain why Ukraine needs more of these weapons, right now, in The First Rule of Cluster Munitions: Don’t Talk about Cluster Munitions.
4. Putting the F in IFV
This summer near Orikiv on the southern front, I interviewed the acting commander of the 47th Mechanized Brigade. This week in Avdiivka, his unit showed that the US made Bradley infantry fighting vehicle is not just a "battle taxi" to shuttle infantry up to the posadkas (what the Ukrainians call those lines of trees where most of the fighting occurs in the southern front). This video purportedly shows a Bradley completely dominating, not a T-72, not even a T-80, but a Russian T-90 tank. The US Abrams tanks are going to have a hard act to follow, (if they ever get close enough to engage the enemy).
5. Long War, Short Podcast
Right now, when I think about the operational danger Ukraine faces along the 600-mile front line I'm reminded of an exchange from Hemmingway's The Sun Also Rises, "'How did you go bankrupt?' 'Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.'" With the Russians conducting constant "meat wave" attacks along the front, from Kupyansk, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, to Robotyne, I'm worried that the Russians will eventually find a point of penetration, and achieve a breakout, especially given the poor condition (or often absence) of Ukrainian prepared defenses along the front. In Arthur Snell's recent podcast discussion with journalist Luke Harding, they discuss the current state of the war, Putin's possible strategies going forward, Ukrainian resiliency, Trump (this was recorded before Iowa), and how this thing might end. It's refreshing to listen to someone who's actually been to the front lines. Best podcast episode I've heard this week.
6. Bonus Map
If you want to know what most Ukrainians use to monitor the front lines, it's probably Deep State Ukraine. At the top of the app it says "WARNING! It's dangerous and forbidden to use this map for green corridors." When I was in Kramatorsk in May, that's exactly what I used it for.