Rome is Burning: This Week in Ukraine
Strategic success, a possible IL-76 POW disaster, anxiety over US politics, and more.
1. Up in Smoke
Schadenfreude! Ukraine has started a full-court press on Russia’s oil and gas industry using long-range drones. Attacks in the St. Petersburg and Baltic Sea region threaten Russia’s main industry, and could make Russia regret its fascination with destroying the Ukrainian energy grid. Luke Harding (again this week, don’t read into it) and Pjotr Sauer in The Guardian: Ukraine levels up the fight with drone strikes deep into Russia.
The Russians must be really worried about Ukrainian drone attacks if they are deploying S-300 to defend against Shahed-type drones. Of course, the Russians haven’t yet figured out how to counter these slow, “moped” powered drones using AA guns mounted on technicals, like the Ukrainians have been doing forever. Regardless, with the prospect of Ukrainian battlefield success dimming, these strategic-level attacks may be Ukraine’s only hope of gaining possible negotiating-leverage over Russia. Unfortunately, technological advances in this area may also presage the difficulty countries will have in the future in protecting critical infrastructure. Befürchten!
2. Fateful Masters of the Air
Coming on the heels of last week’s successful ambush of a $330 million A-50 (Russia’s AWACS equivalent) and an Ilyushin IL-22 airborne command plane over the Sea of Azov, the Ukrainians may have inadvertently destroyed an IL-76 transport carrying an unverified number (possibly 65) of Ukrainian POWs near Belgorod. Although this story is still developing, it is absolutely feasible that the Ukrainians destroyed this airplane. They have been successful in moving air defense systems near the front lines and engaging Russian aviation, à la the destruction of three Su-34 fighter-bombers in December 2023, and an Su-34, an Su-35, and three Mi-8 helicopters in May 2023. What was or who were actually on this latest target? Those remains remain disputed.
3. A Farewell to Arms?
The British Lord Viscount Palmerston once said, “We have no eternal allies and we have no perpetual enemies, Our interests are eternal and perpetual,” Ukraine's interests are not being shot in the streets, raped, or starved to death by Russians. America's interests are, well, I’m just going to take the easy way out and say “democracy.” Most of our democracy-spreading love affairs eventually come to an end. It's not that America wants to abandon its “friends,” but some alliances are simply geopolitically (and domestic-politically) untenable. Politics never really stop at our water’s edge.
Why does any of this come as a surprise? An abbreviated list of all our abruptly-discarded lovers (who just happen to advance US interests at the time) include: the Chinese, the Vietnamese, the Afghan mujahedeen, the Kurds (many times, we just can’t quit them), the Iraqis, and most recently the Afghans, again.
The venerable Anne Applebaum, who knows a little something about Eastern Europe and winning Pulitzer Prizes, apprizes us of the consequences of another messy breakup in The Atlantic: Is Congress Really Going to Abandon Ukraine Now? “By abandoning Ukraine in a fit of political incompetence, Americans will consent to the deaths of more Ukrainians and the further destruction of the country. We will convince millions of Europeans that we are untrustworthy. We will send a message to Russia and China too, reinforcing their frequently stated belief that the U.S. is a degenerate, dying power.” I’m pleasantly surprised that she resisted the temptation to (at least explicitly) declare that Russia will invade NATO if Ukraine fails.
4. A Changed Man
As the saying goes, “hard times make hard men.” Simon Shuster in The Telegraph: I spent a year with Zelensky – and saw how his personality completely transformed. One of the most interesting things in the article was the rift between Zelensky and his commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces, General Valery Zaluzhny, “Yuriy Tyra, the President’s old friend, heard about it from the troops he met while delivering supplies at the front. ‘People out there keep asking me: are you with the President or with Zaluzhny?’ he said. ‘It’s one or the other.’” It makes me wonder if and when Zaluzhny will cross the political Rubicon and challenge Zelensky for the presidency (if Ukraine ever gets around to holding elections again).
5. An Academy Award Contender
The fight for the southeast Ukrainian city of Mariupol may be one of the most tragic and poignant battles of the war. In March 2022, the Russians bombed the Donetsk Academic Regional Drama Theater in Mariupol, killing 600 mostly women and children. Prior to the strike, the Ukrainians had written “CHILDREN” in extremely large, white, Cyrillic letters near both ends of the theater. In May 2022, almost two-thousand Azov Regiment soldiers and a number of women and children surrendered to the Russians after almost three months of being besieged in the Azovstal metallurgical plant. Two and a half months later the Russians would murder 50 of these POWs in a false-flag explosion at a containment facility in Olenivka. Although we may never know all the atrocities from Mariupol, director Mstyslav Chernov chronicles the initial days of the invasion of the city in 20 Days in Mariupol. I think one of the best quotes from the movie is, “War is like an x-ray. all human insides become visible. Good people become better, bad people, worse.” The film is now in the running for the Oscar for best documentary. Best of all, you can watch the entire movie free on Youtube—WARNING, this film contains extremely disturbing scenes involving children.
6. I Robot
In this week’s video, we take a tranquil little stroll with a Ukrainian wheeled robot through the country side, visiting birds, saying hello to a tank and some UXO (unexploded ordinance), before finally reverse-engineering an enemy bridge in the least quiescent way possible.