Retreat: This Week in Ukraine
The state of the front lines, a pariah in Congress, Trump making sense, Georgian violence, and more!
1. Retrograde Operations
This week, the Ukrainian defense continued to suffocate under the pressure of the Russian advance, especially in the Avdiivka area. The Ukrainians ceded territory near Avdiivka in the east, most notably the settlement Ocheretyne, creating a Russian salient in the front lines. Oliksander Sirsky, the commander-in-chief of the AFU (Armed Forces of Ukraine), said, “The situation at the front worsened, [The orcs are] actively attacking along the entire front line with tactical success in some areas.” The Ukrainian front is slowly deteriorating under this stress.
It seems the Ukrainians are attempting to trade space for time, bleeding the Russians and waiting on US aid. US Stinger missiles, for example, are needed to quash Russian Su-25 close-support fighters that seem to be operating with impunity (video here) in places like operationally significant Chasiv Yar, something that would have been a suicide mission a year ago. However, the slowly increasing US aid will not solve Ukraine’s problems on the front. The Ukrainian army is in bad shape. They are undermanned, still under-resourced, and completely exhausted. They have to deny Russian penetration along 600 miles of front, and the progress of their deliberate defense building (trenches) may not be sufficient. The outlook doesn’t look good, even with the latest round of weapons and ammo beginning to flow into the country.
Make no mistake—the Russian army is terrible. They are not capable of reinforcing success. They are not capable of coordinating a mass breakthrough of the lines. They are poorly trained, poorly equipped, and undisciplined. Regardless, the Kremlin is content to systematically meat-grind its way through Ukraine.
It’s hard to deny that the Russian war machine is much more robust than at the beginning of the war. While Ukraine struggles with recruitment, the Russians enlist 30,000 soldiers per month. The Russian military-industrial complex is running at full steam. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently remarked that China is definitely helping Russia rebuild its army, “But it [China] is the number one supplier of the critical components for Russia to rebuild its defense industrial base-- machine tools, microelectronics, optics and other things that are going right into a massive production of munitions, of weaponry, of tanks, of armored vehicles, which in turn are going into Ukraine.” Russia is far from unstoppable, but it is better resourced than Ukraine, and it’s going to keep coming.
In a few months, Ukraine will need another tranche of Western support. The timing will make it impossible to get another aid bill passed in the US. It’s going to be three or four months before it is painfully obvious that the Ukrainians are, once again, in dire need of Western materiel. By then, it will be too close to November to get a bill passed or even entertained. The Ukrainians will have to husband the current US military aid for eight months, if not forever. The Europeans will have to step up and fill in the gap. They have to do this now to prevent the inevitable “air bubble” in military supplies that will be created four months from now.
For some Ukrainians, it’s already too late. It’s improbable that the Ukrainians will be able to take back, by force, those villages and towns the Russians have extracted in the last month (and may take in the next month). While there is a possibility of a partial Russian breakthrough, the prospects for the battlefield continue to look like a stalemate. Without the proper equipment, without a large number of trained soldiers, and without expanded conscription, the Ukrainians won’t be able to reclaim land or influence the war using ground combat. The theory of success for Ukraine continues to rest on strategic strikes within Russia and the Black Sea.
2. Et Tu, Вікторія?
U.S. Representative Victoria Spartz (R-Indiana) was born in Ukraine. She grew up in Ukraine. Her friends and family are in Ukraine. The Russians literally bombed her grandmother. And last week, Victoria Spartz voted against the Ukraine aid bill. That’s like growing up in Philadelphia and being an Eagles fan all your life. Russia invades Pennsylvania, and you vote against giving ATACM missiles to Kevin Hart, the comedian-president of Pennsylvania. I may have gone too far with that analogy, but the point is, how slimy is that?
In March 2022, shortly after the full-scale invasion, Spartz was all about supporting Ukraine. She made an impassioned plea in Congress, “We need to make sure that we will provide proper, defensive, lethal aid to the Ukrainians that they can defend themselves from this extermination before it’s too late.” Last week, she voted against the aid bill, citing the need to secure the border. Last I checked, Indiana was 1,000 miles from the US southern border.
Why even mention Spartz? She’s just another pandering, character-lacking, sleazebag politician, a flip-flopper who “believes” in whatever will get her re-elected. The problem here is she is more than just a spineless weasel. Because of her heritage, she has, ipso facto, an outsized influence on the Ukraine debate. She is a champion for the shortsighted, reflexively isolationist, political bacteria like Marjorie Twisted Greene and J.D. Vance, and Spartz should be lumped into the crazy box with them (ok, I admit, “Moscow Marjorie” is better. I’ll work on it.). Ukraine (and the West) is on the precipice of defeat, and the last thing they need is a native daughter who won’t support the home team.
3. I Want My $2(%)
This week, Time Magazine published an interview with Trump, in which prisoner #445853 pontificated on his future presidency. His prison laundry list of post-kampf items included pardoning all the January 6th protestors, conducting a third-world prosecution of Biden, redirecting federal funds from useful programs to reinforce the southern border, withdrawing all US troops from Korea, and cutting freeloading NATO members free. According to Trump, “If you’re not going to pay, then you’re on your own.”
Trump’s version of realpolitik is another form of strategic ambiguity. If you don’t think we have to have a strategy to manage our international partners, you’re übergeschnappt. To quote my favorite geopolitical strategist, Joseph Rogan, “Hard times make hard men, hard men make soft times, soft times make soft men, soft men make hard times.” The US has made security soft-times for Europe since the end of WWII. It’s time for some tough amóre.
I understand that unions are not always strictly equal. If it weren’t for states like California and New York, Alabama wouldn’t even have roads. But, in 2023, the richest NATO countries were not the ones spending the most on defense. Those countries closest to possibly getting their asses kicked by a belligerent Russia (with the exemption of the UK, which still probably has imperialist fantasies) were the ones spending the most on defense (Poland, Finland, the Baltics, Hungary, and Greece). Some of the richest countries were the worst laggards (France spending only 1.9%, Germany 1.6%, and Luxembourg 0.72% ). So, using Europe’s “closest to the fight” metric, maybe the US shouldn’t be contributing more than half of all the total support to Ukraine ($175 billion to Europe’s roughly $155 billion—based on commitments and UK contribution). Actually, I think the US needs to contribute much more, but I think Trump is right in spirit: Europe must contribute more to its own defense, which includes hardy and continuous assistance to Ukraine.
4. Let Violence Be Your Guide
We are not there, yet. As the number of protesters in the capital of Tbilisi, Georgia, grew this week, so did the government’s attempt at a crackdown. The police used various means of suppression, including pepper spray, riot gas, rubber bullets, water jets, and this guy smacking the religion out of fools. Still, this is Columbia University-level violence. Right now it looks more like a music festival on 6th Street in Austin than a revolution (see videos here and here ). The real change begins when the real bullets begin flying. Watch this space.
5. Hostis Humani Generis
The Russians continue to outdo themselves when it comes to crimes against humanity. This week they used an Iskander ballistic missile replete with cluster munitions to attack civilians in the port city of Odesa, killing five and wounding 30. There is no possible military significance to this strike, as the target was a popular promenade including a building called the “Harry Potter Castle.” We can add this to the long list of orc atrocities.
6. [Video] He’s No George Patton
This week’s video is of a Russian commander giving a pre-battle motivational speech. I think he might be confused about who’s supposed to die for whose country. At least he got the poor dumb bastard part right.