Rebellion: This Week in Ukraine
Rebellion: This Week in Ukraine
Power to the people, power to the machine, power to messy democracies, power to the mind, and, of course, power to the video of the week.
1. A Tale of Two Revolutions
This week, thousands marched on the Georgian parliament (video here) to send a message to the Russian lackeys in the government that the people of Georgia will not be manipulated or ignored. They are protesting against a proposed bill, paradoxically labeled the “foreign agents” bill, that would act to suppress any dissent toward the government. The law would mark an incremental yet significant move away from Europe and toward Russia, enabling the proliferation of Putinesque authoritarianism.
In 2008, Russia invaded the country of Georgia under the guise of liberating Russian expatriates from the suffocating grip of freedom. The invasion strengthened the break-away region of South Ossetia and further ensconced Putin’s ideology into Georgian politics. The current situation in Georgia is the result of Russia following their standard playlist: 1. make an excuse to invade the former Soviet satellite state, 2. manipulate the resulting government through corruption and gray warfare. Yet, the Kremlin often forgets about the most essential tenet of authoritarian oppression: 3. don’t overtly overstep your bounds and start a revolution.
These protests are reminiscent of the Ukrainian Maidan in 2014. In that revolt, the Russian puppet president, Viktor Yanukovych, decided to nix a bill that would bring Ukraine economically closer to Europe. At one point, 800,000 Ukrainians protested in the Maidan. Throughout the protests, violence on both sides killed hundreds. Eventually, Yanukovych fled to Russia, and pro-Westerners ascended as the dominant force in government. By February 2022, Putin realized that he wasn’t going to be able to recover his political and economic influence within Ukraine, and he invaded.
Could this same thing happen in Georgia? The first indicator that I’m watching for is an escalation of numbers. Currently, the protests have maxed out at around 20k for Georgia (versus 800k for the Maidan). FYI, Georgia’s population is 4 million versus 40 million for Ukraine, so there is still room for growth. Although I admit this analysis does not have a basis in “revolution science,” the bigger the riot, the greater the result.
Second, I’m looking for violence (beyond that of the Georgian member of parliament disciplining a pro-Russian member while said sucker-punch recipient was orating on the proposed bill; video here.) On the Maidan, the police forces killed and beat hundreds of citizens (events that were captured on cell phones and televised). Likewise, the protesters were prepared to use violence against the police, and they did. Nothing changes a politician’s stance like thousands of angry, violent revolutionists.
Although I will forgo making observations about the ramifications of this political technique of mob violence on the fabric of democratic political systems (since we Americans currently live in a glass house in this regard), I will note that if you are wondering if Putin has the political will, the resources, and the general wherewithal to engage in another major military operation against Georgia: of course he does.
2. A Tale of Two Attacks
The US military created the world’s most advanced stealth fighter jet, the F-35, at a total program cost of $2 trillion. On average, each plane costs a little less than $100 million. Optimistically, every hour of flight time has dropped from an initial $87,000 to an affordable $34,000. Part of the total expense of the plane is that even though the probability of a US Air Force fighter jet engaging in a “dogfight” is basically zero, the F-35 sports a 25mm Gatling gun (this anachronistic machine gun may stem from the poor performance of missiles on the F-4 fighter during Vietnam). Good news! It looks like the US military has found a mission for the most expensive military project ever: shooting down $20k Iranian drones.
This week, the world inched further to the precipice as Iran attacked Israel in retaliation for the IDF’s recent attack on Iranian complexes, including one in Syria. Iran launched around 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles, 99% of which were shot down or otherwise failed to reach their targets. Notably, the drones were the Shahed-type (similar to the drones Russia is using to attack Ukraine). An air-defense coalition, including Israel, the US, the UK, France, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, successfully thwarted the attack. Most Israelis were ecstatic at how a Western-led coalition could galvanize to defeat such a massive strategic air threat, many Ukrainians were not.
Ukrainians were perplexed and immediately drew comparisons with Iran’s attacks and those of Russia. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky was publicly agitated and a bit nonplussed, "The sound of 'Shahed' drones, a tool of terror, is the same in the skies over the Middle East and Europe." The insult was amplified by a Russian ballistic missile attack this week on the northern city of Chernihiv which killed 18 and wounded over 60.
As painful as it is to watch Israel quash a massive air raid while Ukrainian cities are getting pummeled, I can surmise at least two differences between the theaters of war that must be considered. The first is geopolitics. Although the political and diplomatic machinations are beyond my expertise (or comprehension), modern conflict in the Middle East, especially involving Israel, has been ongoing since at least 1948. Israel has been researching, developing, and deploying its air defenses for decades. Also important to note, Russia has 5,000 nuclear weapons, and Iran probably has 5.
The second difference is one of tactics. The Iranian strike was primarily a dog-and-pony show to allow Khamenei and the mullahs to save face over the prior Israeli attacks. Israel and its proxies (I mean, allies) were given ample warning (days). I speculate that Iran went so far as to time each launch to prevent overwhelming coalition air defenses (although I’m sure Iran was disappointed in the performance of their ballistic missiles). Additionally, many of the Iranian flight paths interdicted other country’s air space, something that (usually) doesn’t occur right now in Eastern Europe. Conversely, Russian air attacks are purposefully executed to confuse and overwhelm defenses, with cruise missiles zig-zagging all over the country before eventually descending. There are probably additional dissimilarities between the two attacks. Still, the main idea is that as much as it pains me to watch the carnage currently ensuing in Ukraine, comparing the West’s resolve to protect Ukraine versus Israel seems to be more of an emotional response than a rational, practical consideration of existing physical constraints.
3. You Either Die a Hero, or Live Long Enough to Act Like One
The $60 billion Ukraine aid package has finally passed the US House of Representatives and should be law within the week. Thankfully, some US military aid (including 155mm artillery shells and air defense munitions) is already packaged and ready to go and could start contributing to de-Russification a week after Biden signs the bill. A big sarcastic kudos to US Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, who finally and intrepidly allowed a vote on the bill. Johnson announced his legislative largess in a press conference where he told the world of his political bravery by doing the right thing in the face of a possible motion to vacate his job. What unbridled courage!
Why would anyone hold Mike Johnson out as a hero for allowing this vote? He didn’t rush into a burning building. He stood outside the burning building for five months and wouldn’t let anyone else rush in. Now, he’s finally allowing others to decide if they want to come to the rescue, and he’s a hero. Bullshit. He allowed Ukraine to wallow under a Russian onslaught, allowed the enemy to gain battlefield momentum, discredited the US in the eyes of our allies, and made all of democracy look flaccid and inept. Heroes are anointed because they do the right thing without delay and do not drag their feet out of political convenience.
4. The Ministries of Ungentlemanly Info Warfare
This week, famed Ukrainian historian Timothy Snider testified to the US Congress about the disinformation campaigns that China and Russia use to attempt to manipulate our democracy (his opening statement here). He explains that the war in Ukraine is an important litmus test for China, and Xi wants nothing more than Ukraine to lose, discrediting democracies and clearing the straits for overt aggression against Taiwan in the process. Snider also identifies a few “choice” elites who either purposefully or inadvertently spread these false Russian and Chinese tropes (e.g. Nazis everywhere!) about Ukraine. I don’t believe just because some members of the House and Senate parrot Russia and Chinese disinformation that they are agents of those countries (that would require a degree of intellect and sophistication). They’re just useless idiots.
5. [Video] Congratulations, You’ve Invented a New Type of Stupid
This week’s video is of Russia’s latest battlefield “innovation,” widely known as the “Turtle Tank” (close-up video here). It looks like the Russians are getting desperate to protect their tanks from FPV drones. I’m not sure if this apparatus is meant to be cover from drones, or some form of house-camouflage concealment. Regardless, it’s classic orc idiocy.