Navalny: This Week in Ukraine

Anti-Putin activist killed, star wars begin, Musk speaks drivel, and more...

1. A Voice Silenced

Alexie Navalny is dead. The 47-year-old anti-Putin activist died of “unspecified causes” in a gulag north of the Arctic Circle. Since the mid-2000s Navalny was outspoken against the Russian dictatorship and especially against the war, “This is a stupid war which your Putin started...one madman has got his claws into Ukraine and I do not know what he wants to do with it - this crazy thief."

It is insanely brave to oppose the Putin regime and especially to do so in Russia. In 2020 the Kremlin poisoned Navalny by putting a Soviet cold-war-era nerve agent, called Novichok, in his underpants. In 2021 the regime imprisoned him on a litany of charges, including being the founder of an “extremist group.” In December of 2023 he was sent to a death camp in northern Russia.

What does the killing of Navalny say about Putin’s hold on power? Since the start of the war in 2022, the regime has maintained a policy of instant incarceration for any public act of dissent, regardless of how minor. Early in the war, it was popular to protest by holding up blank signs, until these people started being “sent to the basement,” to use the Ukrainian parlance. Putin’s insecurity may be a symptom of his precarious hold on power. His zero-tolerance policy reflects the zero margin-of-error situation in which he finds himself. Navalny once said, “You’re not allowed to give up. If they decide to kill me, it means that we are incredibly strong.” I do not believe Navalny’s murder will stop other voices from rising up against Putin and his war of aggression, it will only make them louder.

2. The Russians have Gone to Plaid!

Russia may be attempting to deploy a nuclear weapon in space. This week Rep. Mike Turner (R-OH) demanded that Joe Biden declassify intelligence on a “serious national security threat.” Biden said he would, as soon as he remembers where he put it, “it’s somewhere with the nuclear football, wherever that is.”

ABC first reported the details, seen here, and it appears that the threat might be a nuclear anti-satellite weapon. A nuclear explosion in space would disrupt most satellites in proximity through an electromagnetic pulse, or EMP (note: most military satellites are EMP hardened to mitigate the effects of such an attack). The United States knows that nuclear explosions in space fry satellites, because we did it. In 1962 we exploded a nuclear weapon in earth’s orbit, destroying many of our own celestial objects including the UK’s first satellite—bugger me sideways!  

If Russia is serious about going down this road, it could have grave consequences. Not the least of which are that many Americans won’t have GPS in their cars, or internet to download their weekly newsletter on Ukraine. But don’t worry, I’m sure the Space Force will save us. If you want a more in depth look at the Russian threat against Starlink, here is my analysis.

3. Never Mix Twitter and Ketamine

This week a bunch of influential, yet ill-informed, individuals decided to get on Twitter to chat about how Ukraine is going to lose the war and how the United States should stop funding Ukraine. This cavalcade of naysayers included Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy, Senators Ron Johnson (R-WI) and J.D. Vance (R-OH). Musk said, “There is no way in hell that Putin is going to lose.” Johnson parroted the sentiment, “Putin won’t lose. He will not lose. He’s not gonna lose.” Ok, we got it. You don’t think Putin will lose. If you hate yourself, and feel you need to listen to the actual recording of this dribble, it is here.

Musk pointed out the following: the war is at a stalemate, the lines are not moving. People on both sides are dying at an immorally high rate. This war will end in a settlement. All of this is absolutely true. But, his conclusion that we should stop funding Ukraine because the West is just maintaining this stalemate is shortsighted and wrong. That’s like saying just because the car’s brakes are out, there’s no reason to steer. We are funding Ukraine to ensure Russia doesn’t take more of the country, with the hope that Ukraine will recover lost territory and gain negotiating leverage over Russia. Funding Ukraine is a strategic necessity, not a delaying tactic.

Vivek Ramaswamy removed his lips from Trump’s butt long enough to add that regime change is “the only ultimately stated goal of this project.” Which is not true, see above. His and Musk’s logic being that if we do remove Putin, the next guy is bound to be worse. While I tend to agree with that outcome from regime change, I do not agree with Ramaswamy’s underlying premise that the West’s primary goal is change.

Johnson then quoted one of Zelenskyy’s top aids saying, “even if the US and all its allies come through with all the weapons they have pledged, ‘we don’t have the men to use them.’” they don’t have the manpower to use it.” This is ridiculous. I spoke with a Paladin self-propelled artillery battery commander near Robotyne in September who told me that they started the year with 12 US Paladin systems that were supplied by the West. They are now down to two. The Ukrainians have plenty of trained manpower to operate heavy Western weapons. Alas, they do not have the manpower to repel Russian attacks on trenches. They need more Western support, in all flavors.  

I reject anyone who is trying to present this war as a fait accompli victory for Putin. His army is terrible. He sits on a throne of lies (yes, Elf reference), and we are the greatest country on earth. Through Ukraine, the United States alone can easily defeat Russia. In the 1980s we defeated the Soviets using the ragtag mujahidin in Afghanistan, surely we can defeat the Russians with the determined Ukrainians. And if the America fails to fund Ukraine, this war will not stop. Europe will continue to fund the war, and Ukrainians will continue to fight.

4. Another Oily Stain in the Black Sea

The Ukrainians did it again. Using unmanned surface vessels (remote-controlled explosive jet skis) they destroyed the giant Russian transport ship Caesar Kunikov (video here). A Russian helicopter pilot attempting to rescue the crew radioed, “I see wreckage and an oily stain.” This is the fourth large landing craft destroyed by Ukraine in the Black Sea, leaving Russia’s remaining fleet of landing ships on duty in the Black Sea at nine. This devastation of Russia’s landing fleet is reducing their options in terms of amphibius assault and equipment transfers from the Russian mainland, making the Kerch Straight Bridge from Rostov to Crimea even more vital. The Ukrainians have been violating the bridge since the beginning of the war, and I predict the Ukrainians will eventually turn it into an underwater habitat for dolphins.

5. [Video] Unique Training Philosophy

In this week’s video we find the Ukrainians training their drone operators to drop grenades in enemy trenches. The best part of the video is that the Ukrainians are using other Ukrainians as targets, walking around trenches. This video encompasses the Ukrainian sense of risk aversion. They have none.