Killing Russians for Free: The New Bomber Mafia
Killing Russians for Free: The New Bomber Mafia
How the Ukrainians are using large drones to drop large bombs.
In 2023 I had seen to two major areas of combat—the Bakhmut area in May, the Robotyne area in October—and within those four months, the character of the war had changed. Drones, although ubiquitous throughout the war, had taken on new significance. The soldiers I was with in October seemed more concerned with enemy FPV (First Person View) drone attacks than with snipers or artillery. Perhaps more importantly, large, what I'm calling "heavy bomber" drones, were conducting precision strikes behind enemy lines. One infantry officer I was with near Robotyne said "here we fight with drones, not guns."
In early October near Robotyne, I observed the next evolution of "dropping things from drones." While accompanying a unit that included SSO (Ukrainian special forces) and SBU (their FSB equivalent) on a night mission to the front lines (what the Ukrainians call the "zero line"), I saw firsthand perhaps the most effective and cheapest way to kill Russians. The team was using a large quadcopter drone, equivalent to a giant version of a DJI Mavic drone, to "return" a captured Russian 122mm artillery round to an enemy command post behind the zero line (for operationally security reasons the Ukrainians do not want me to disclose how far away the target was, but it was close enough I could see the explosion). Days after the mission I received reconnaissance photos of the strike—the command post was completely obliterated (see pictures below). The Russians have started calling these drones, “Baba Yaga,” after the Russian legend of an evil night witch (also, coincidently, the nom de guerre of John Wick).
There are some notable insights from this mission that will impact the future of conflict. First, the effectiveness is undeniable. The team told me that the current circular error probable (degree of error on the bomb) is one meter—comparable to any GPS-guided munition. This unit said they had not yet seen any issues with GPS jamming. I asked one of the soldiers, call sign Banker, how many of these artillery shells did he have? He replied, “how many do you need?” During their hasty retreat in the Kharkiv counteroffensive of 2022, the Russians had left giant caches of weapons, including these “younger siblings” of 155mm shells. I asked him how often they go out on missions like this—he said, "every night."
Second, the cost of this weapon system is ridiculously low. The Ukrainians built the quadcopter, which lacked more sophisticated parts like carbon fiber propellers, in the western half of the country for roughly $13k—and it was reusable. The munitions, in this case a 17-kilogram artillery shell, are free. Each mission costs Ukraine roughly the equivalent of a quarter of a tank of gas. Compare that to the cost of one U.S. Joint Direct Attack Munition (GPS guided bomb), billed as a "low-cost" smart bomb, at around $30k not counting the exorbitant cost of the fighter jet (e.g. an F-16) used to drop it. Likewise, the U.S. Switchblade-300 loitering munition, a small explosive carrying, tube-launched drone, the type of which achieved lack-luster performance in Ukraine, costs at least $52k a piece.
Western governments are currently fretting that the war in Ukraine is depleting their stocks of conventional munitions. Political gridlock in Washington, D.C. and rebel factions in the European Union threaten funding to Ukraine. Western equipment is breaking down. F-16 pilots take months, or years, to train. Yet, relatively-free bomber drones are doing the work of expensive HIMARS missiles or fighter-bombers. With war fatigue ever looming, the Ukrainians continue to find a way, changing the character of war, and killing Russians for free.