Invasion: This Week in Ukraine
Invasion: This Week in Ukraine
Russia is invaded, drone lethality is seeping out of Ukraine, F-16s are seeping in, ordinary Russians are on notice, and more!
1. A Ukrainian Special Military Operation
Ukraine has invaded Russia. A sizable force has entered Russia near the Kursk oblast, the border area located roughly 200 miles east of Kyiv. The details are slowly filtering out, so I will refrain from wild speculation on the specifics, judgments on the wisdom of Ukraine invading now, or making calls on specific tactics. It’s completely worthless at this point, and besides, if you want to hear random, unqualified people expound on the military situation in Ukraine, let me direct you to twitter.com. But, I will attempt to outline what we think we know now.
Unlike previous excursions into Russia, this invasion looks to be legitimate. Early reporting puts the Ukrainian force as large as 10,000 soldiers (possibly 5 brigades worth), supported by armor, HIMARS, artillery, and a shit ton of drones. As of this writing (Saturday), the Ukrainian force has flattened Russian border resistance and penetrated at least 12 miles past two defensive belts into the relatively unprotected womb of the Russists’ Родина-мать. Ukrainians seem to be systematically destroying the Russian columns rushing to defend the area and have taken at least 100 square miles of Russian territory in the attack.
We will all have to wait to see how this operation transpires. Regardless, Russia has enjoyed the certainty of its borders' sanctuary since the beginning of this war. Now, the Ukrainians are presenting Putin with multiple dilemmas, injecting more operational complexity to disrupt his plans. See you in Belgorod, comrade. Slava Ukraini!
2. But the War is Interested in You
This week, the second most important development from the Ukraine war has nothing to do with F-16s. Foreign Affairs just published an article by the former CEO of Google, Eric Schmidt, and the former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Mark Milley, wherein the two describe how advanced technology, specifically drones and autonomous weapons, is beginning to infiltrate conflicts worldwide. The piece describes the proliferation of these technologies throughout militaries, insurgent groups, and non-state actors. The bottom line is the US military invests in large things, not large ideas. We are a platform-based (jets, capital ships, tanks) military, and we are not prepared for the eventuality of large, expensive end-items succumbing to small drones and robots.
The proliferation has begun. State and non-state actors have adopted many technologies and techniques from the war in Ukraine. Last month, the Houthis attacked oil tankers using unmanned surface vessels, the same type of drone the Ukrainians used to cripple Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. Hamas used small Mavic-style drones to drop grenades on October 7th, after ISIS had been doing it in Syria for years. Our military bases overseas have seen a disturbing uptick in drone attacks since the Shahed-type drone attack against our Tower 22 base in Jordan in late January. This week, a video was released of a C-RAM taking out an unidentified drone at a US base in Erbil, Iraq. Closer to home, the Mexican army released a statement this week on how “bomb-dropping drones” have attacked and killed troops in what has become “a near-daily occurrence.”
When I was in Kharkiv a month ago, the Ukrainians were working on sending FPV drones out beyond 15 km. Soon, flying drones will be able to reach anywhere, from anywhere. One day it’s taking wedding videos, the next it’s flying into a stadium during an NFL football game. That giant cruise ship that holds 8,000 people, how do you think it will fare on the open seas against an unmanned drone packed with explosives? If you’ve been paying attention at all to the Ukraine war and the countless videos of FPV drones hitting bunkers, vehicles, or humans, it is apparent that up to this point, there is no reliable defense against drones.
One might argue that the bottleneck in building an attack drone is the dearth of explosives. That is correct. We do not live in a war zone. Americans do not have access to RPG rounds or C4. We do have access to unlimited bullets, and people have been putting guns on drones for a while now (see video here). Also, just like the US military’s R9X “Ginsu” Hellfire missile that has no explosives, just large blades that extend to cut through a person, drones will eventually take advantage of their speed to pierce their target like a dart. The fastest drone currently flies at 300 miles per hour, plenty fast enough to leave a bruise. And let’s not even think about napalm drones.
The war in Ukraine is about to come to the US in the form of small, autonomous drones. This is not fear-mongering. It is just observing the obvious course of world events and the path of technology. This simple and cheap technology is available to everyone, and it’s only getting more advanced. The drone war is coming for everyone; the only question is when.
3. Finally, the F-16 Has Arrived
It is official. F-16s are in Ukraine. Now what?
Last Sunday, Ukraine verified that the first 10 of an eventual 79 F-16s are in the country. By the end of this year, they may have 20 such jets, but they may not have enough pilots to fly them. Any available pilots will have gone through a compressed training program, inadequate for the possible threats they will face from Russian air and air defense. Then there’s the possible lack of sufficient maintenance. It will be a while before F-16s contribute to Ukraine’s war effort.
The F-16 is a capable platform. That’s why the Ukrainians have been begging for it since the start of the war. The first time the F-16 was used in combat, in 1981, the Israelis used them to bomb Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor (technology generously provided by the French, no less). The Ukrainians could use their F-16s to perform similar surgical strikes within Russia. The ruminants of that pesky Black Sea Fleet now cowering over 400 miles away (by sea) in Novorossiysk? Not a problem. Oil refineries? Gone. Kerch Strait Bridge? Easy. (To note: Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Chief Kyrylo Budanov said on Aug. 2 that they are working on a plan to destroy the bridge within the coming months, but it’s complicated.)
Alas, the destruction of these glorious targets will not be the fate of the Ukrainian air force as long as this administration continues its policy of timidity toward Russia. This week, the US State Department’s spokesperson, Matthew Miller, discussed the Ukrainian use of F-16s: “My answer has not changed today, which is we constantly look at the needs of the Ukrainian military, we assess the security situation, and we try to be responsive to their needs.” I would argue that their “needs” are defeating a former superpower threatening their existence.
Unfortunately, the Biden administration will probably continue its policy of restricting Western weapons use inside Russia. This week Ukraine revealed that over the summer, they had the opportunity to cripple the Russian air force that had parked dozens of Su-34 fighter jets at the Voronezh Malshevo, 100 miles from the border with Ukraine. These are the same jets that Russia has for months used to drop glide bombs, terrorizing the borderlands. The Ukrainians requested permission from the White House to use ATACMS missiles. That request was denied.
Anyone paying even casual attention to this war realizes that the threat to annihilate Ukraine is not hyperbole. The West has failed, and will continue to fail, in the deployment of air power for Ukraine. For the short term, these F-16s will probably be used to shoot down Shahed drones and cruise missiles. Eventually, the US will have to allow Ukraine to defend itself properly. The West must eventually confront Russian tyranny with a requisite level of violence. That violence includes providing for and letting slip the F-16s.
4. Ordinary Russians
This is absolutely perfect, and I will gently place it right here:
“I would like to address the recurring question of those ‘ordinary Russians’ who ‘shouldn’t be sanctioned’. I hear talk of ordinary Russians’ innocence, but then I see ordinary Russians murdering ordinary Ukrainians. I see ordinary Russian mothers saying goodbye to their ordinary Russian sons and wishing them good luck with their ordinary Russian war crimes. I see ordinary Russians celebrating murder. I see ordinary Russian parents dressing up their ordinary Russian children in military uniforms and painting the letter Z on a cardboard tank costume. I see ordinary Russians coming together to make a huge Z formation in the town square. Ordinary Russia is sick. Healing will be a long and gruelling [sic] process which can only start when Russia, not just Putin, is defeated. Without a defeat in Ukraine, Russia will just keep spreading. So about those ‘unfair’ sanctions against ‘ordinary Russians’... Well, anything which slows down Russia’s total war machine will have ordinary Lithuanians’ support. Whatever victory takes. Slava Ukraini.”
—Lithuanian Foreign Affairs Minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis
5. Liquidating Wagnerites and Losing Africa
Since the start of this war, Africa’s support for Ukraine has ranged from tepid to outwardly hostile. This week, the momentum shifted toward hostile. After rebel soldiers, with the help of Ukrainian intelligence, ambushed and removed a number (approximately 84) of Wagner mercenaries in Mali in late July, that government now has officially cut ties with Ukraine. Mali is only one incidence of the anti-Ukraine, anti-West movement that is currently spreading across Africa.
This week, Niger and Senegal followed suit and severed diplomatic ties with Ukraine. Also this week, the US, at the demand of the year-old ruling junta, completed its withdrawal of all forces from its brand new $100 million military base in Niger, a strategic staging point for America’s Africa operations. While over the last couple of years the US has done a terrible job managing relations with the Global South in general, the US has been especially inept at influencing Africa. At the same time, Wagner continues operations on the continent, extracting resources and pedaling Russian influence.
From the US perspective, it’s almost as if the State Department outsourced much of its “soft power” job to the US military. As if defeating terrorists and insurgents destabilizing your country and continent was enough to earn a level of goodwill from grateful governments. Unfortunately, Western ideals of democracy and the rule of law are incongruent with the realpolitik of most African states. It should be of no surprise that these governments eschew Western influence as a hindrance to their political goals and insidious methods to achieve them. Like with Russia, Western governments have a too-lenient, too-hands-off stance on the chaos that is Africa, a chaos that benefits opportunists like Russia’s Wagner.
Wagner's continued existence in Africa indicates a continued Western apathy and half-heartedness toward the war against Russia. Why are we still hearing about Wagner? Why does Ukraine need to take it upon itself to counter Russian global influence operations in places like Mali and Sudan? The US meekly left Niger after the coup, and it is meekly acquiescing to obvious Russian influence operations in Africa. Ukraine should not have to fight Wagner alone in Africa.
4. [Video] Russian Jetsam
This week’s video is of a Russian truck driving down the road as an orc in the back expels body bags filled with comrades. I really have no words for how disgusting this is.