Insanity: This Week in Ukraine
A possible penetration in the Kharkiv area, Jake Sullivan blabbing on and on, an assassination attempt on Zelensky, Ukrainian convicts, sea drones going ballistic, and of course, the video of the week
1. Doing the Same Thing, Expecting a Different Demise
This week we might have seen the first signs of Russia opening another front near the city of Kharkiv. The second largest city in Ukraine, Kharkiv is fewer than 20 miles from the Russian border, and Russia has been attacking the city with glide bombs and artillery for months. While this recent assault could be the main thrust of the Russian summer offensive, it’s probably too early to speculate. I can say that the last time the Russians tried to take over Kharkiv, it didn’t end well for the orcs.
But, that doesn’t mean this new front won’t make life more painful for the Ukrainians. It’s a minor miracle that they’ve held out on the existing five fronts this long. The Ukrainian border with Russia and Belarus is 2000 miles long. Yes, it is the same length as the US-Mexico border, but with fewer armored columns. Denying Russian incursions along the entire length of the border will continue to be a monumental task for the Ukrainians.
2. The War will End in July of Next Year, or Maybe Never
What is Ukraine going to do with its recent windfall of US aid? Like a gambling addict who’s just got his monthly government check, the Ukrainians are going back to the dog track. It appears next year they will do the same thing they did last year: attack! This week, the US national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, revealed a plan for Ukraine to conduct another counteroffensive in 2025. In a way, this is good news because if it’s true, I estimate the war will be over around July of next year. This is not to say Ukraine will necessarily be victorious.
Although I’m a proponent of this scheme (I think Ukraine should, again, mass and attempt to penetrate Russian lines) there are several risks. First, the battlefield in Ukraine is not conducive to massing armored vehicles. We see it every week with the Russians, and every week Russian columns burn.
Second, the Ukrainians tried a big counterattack at Mala Tokmachka last year. What are they going to do differently next year? Are they training for a combined arms assault? It doesn’t appear to be so. I spoke with individuals who have attended Western training for Ukrainian troops in places like Germany. It appears most Ukrainians are training on how to assault trenches. It’s hard to reclaim 42,000 square miles one trench at a time.
Third, there’s timing. It seems like the plan is for Ukraine to hold back the Russians this year, then assault them, most probably in late spring after the mud dries. The Russians will culminate their summer assault eventually. When they do, they will dig in—just like in 2023. The best time to conduct a counteroffensive? It’s right after the enemy’s offensive, when they are disoriented and vulnerable. Perhaps this is the real plan—Ukraine will surprise attack sometime this fall.
Fourth, will the Ukrainians even have trained soldiers to conduct an assault? The Verkhovna Rada (the Ukrainian parliament) lowered the conscription age to 25. It takes time to recruit and train. If they preemptively attack in the fall, they will have fewer fresh recruits, relying on veteran brigades like the 92nd and exhausted, combat-hardened brigades like the 47th Magura. Will they have a reasonable attack-defense ratio (say 3:1)? Probably, if they concentrate forces and are willing to accept risk.
Regardless of the outcome of the next Ukrainian counteroffensive, the end should be nigh. If the Ukrainians punch through, they will be at their high watermark for negotiating leverage. If they fail, Western support will evaporate. Negotiation might be the only option left. If they muddle about, taking a couple of thousand square miles (which is still a lot) and killing 100,000 Russians (which is still a lot), the war will continue.
3. For Whom the FPV Buzzes, It Buzzes for Thee
Two Ukrainian colonels responsible for the personal security of Ukrainian president Zelensky were arrested for plotting to assassinate him, the head of the SBU, Vasyl Maliuk, and the head of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov. In return for monetary compensation, the colonels were to deliver information about the targets’ location and two explosive drones (most likely FPV) to the assigned assassin.
It’s no miracle that Zelensky survived this assassination attempt—it’s a miracle that he’s survived this long. Early in the war, Russia apparently sent elite Chechen commandos into Kyiv to hunt Zelensky. The SBU and police forces were able to root them out. It is speculated that Russia tried to kill Zelensky a couple of months ago with a missile attack in Odesa. There is, perhaps, no more public a figure than Volodymyr Zelensky currently being hunted by as powerful a foe as the Kremlin. Given the degree to which the Russian FSB had infiltrated the Ukrainian government before the full-scale invasion in 2022 and the residual sympathies to Russia that must still exist in the Ukrainian security apparatus, it is amazing Zelensky is still with us. I’m sure there will be more attempts on his life, and I hope that the combination of Ukrainian adeptness and Russian incompetency will continue to keep him safe.
4. Send in the Cons
One news story from the week that seems to have been glossed over is that the Verkhovna Rada overwhelmingly approved the conscription of currently serving convicts to fight for the country. According to the Kyiv Post, the legislation would prohibit the recruitment of those convicted of certain crimes, including “rape, sexual violence, molestation of minors...corruption...illegal drug-related activities...pre-meditated murder of two or more people.” Wait. What?! Yes, the “pre-meditated murder of two or more people.” So busted for drug use? No, we don’t want you. Only killed one person? Come right in, here’s your automatic rifle.
There are so many problems with this I don’t know where to begin. First and foremost, ultimately soldiers in the trenches fight for each other and their survival. They need to know the person next to them is a reliable patriot fighting for their country and way of life. I’m guessing murderers won’t exactly instill a level of confidence. Second, this is a very Soviet/Russian move. Stalin enlisted penal colonists to die on the Ostfront in WWII. At the beginning of this war, Yevgeny Prigozhin was infamously recruiting from Russian prisons to fill the ranks of his Wagner PMC. It seems to smack of desperation for Ukraine to endure the stigma and complications of enlisting convicts. I’m curious to see if Ukraine will use these convicts in the same way as the Russians, to wantonly absorb enemy bullets.
5. Naval Surprise
Everything is going to plan in the Black Sea. This week, the Ukrainians again used a USV (unmanned surface vessel) drone to attack a Russian speedboat near Crimea.
The Russian defensive tactic is to deploy large, slow helicopters (typically MI-8s and KA-29s) to attempt to machine gun the drones. This week, the Ukrainians had a little something special for the helicopters. One of the sea drones was equipped with an anti-air missile. Surprise, comrade! This is the real reason why pilots wear adult diapers. Watch the video here (the missile misfires).
Although this naval bushwhacking was unsuccessful, the Ukrainians have once again given us a small glimpse into the future of warfare. I predict that very shortly these USVs will be carrying FPV drones. They wouldn’t necessarily need to be autonomous. A separate Starlink terminal could control the FPVs. Although latency (delay in the control signal) and jitter (reliability of the signal) might degrade maneuverability when flying $800 drones from 500 miles away, the circular error probable against these large, slow helicopters would be negligible. In short, this tactic seems feasible. And if it’s possible, the Ukrainians will try it. Stay tuned.
6. [Video] Let’s Go!
In honor of this weekend’s Eurovision 2024, this week’s video is an ode to the music competition, complete with flourishing, ornate Ukrainian dancers and that sweet Europop music of which Americans seem so fond. Of course, I’m kidding. No one in America gives a sh*t about Eurovision. This week’s video is the Ukrainian national anthem played by weapons of death and destruction.