Fighting for Independence: This Week in Ukraine

Ukraine’s competing operational interests, hunting helicopters with drones, Russia burning, Putin taking a vacation, and more.

1. A Tale of Two Cities

It was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair. — Charles Dickens

It’s the best of times for Ukraine. Near the Russian city of Kursk, the invasion is over two weeks old, and yet Russia seems unable to mount a timely response. The offensive has forced the Kremlin to leach troops from Ukraine, relieving pressure on some hotspots like Chasiv Yar and Kharkiv. Ukraine’s morale is high, and uncertainty amongst its international partners as to whether it has the chops to defeat Russia is waning. It also might be the beginning of the worst of times for Ukraine. The Russian assault toward the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk is persistent. Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers are preoccupied in Kursk while the Ukrainian defense along the front continues to writhe from a dearth of personnel. Ukraine, outnumbered and ill-equipped, continues to hold its breath and rely on Russian tactical incompetence to impede a Russian breakthrough.   

The dichotomy is a tale of the two cities. In Kursk, Ukraine smells blood in the water. After two weeks of frolicking inside the borders of a nuclear-armed, former super-power, it is evident that in the short term, Ukraine has a near carte blanche to expand its buffer zone, if it chose to take that risk. The three major bridges across the river Seym are disabled, and any Russian attempt at building pontoon bridges is met with Ukrainian cluster munitions. Ukraine is even counterattacking in the Kharkiv region, retaking territory after months of being under siege. The Kremlin seems to have acquiesced to what it is officially calling the “new normal” of having Ukrainians occupying Russia. There seems to be some Russian withdrawal from Ukraine to reinforce the impending Kursk counterattack, alleviating pressure on some, but not all, hotspots.

Things are going well in Kursk. The Russians are disorganized and hesitating to mount a counterattack, while the Ukrainians continue expanding their beachhead. Picture from Chuck Pfarrer on X.com.

In the other city, Pokrovsk, things are looking dismal. Despite removing some troops from Ukraine, Russia may have had its most successful week in the Donbas in many months. The Russian army seems to be rushing toward the city, currently as close as 10-15 km away. The traditional Russian artillery shitstorm will now begin. Ukraine has ordered the evacuation of Pokrovsk, and there is a report that the commander of the 47^th mechanized brigade believes the bulk of Russian forces in the Donbas are there to stay. If Pokrovsk falls, the next target will probably be the city of Kramatorsk, shoring up the bulk of the Donetsk oblast for Putin. The Russian zombie horde seems intent on continuing its slow march forward in the Donbas.  

In the army, we have a tactic of trading space for time. Before the Kursk invasion, the Ukrainians were slowly trading territory in the Donbas for time to build forces and eventually pounce on Kursk. What the Ukrainians are doing now is more akin to trading space for space. They are relinquishing parts of the Donbas for a chunk of Russia proper. In terms of negotiating leverage, every acre the Ukrainians hold in Russia is far more valuable than that in the Donbas. The success of the Ukrainian strategy rests on placating two simultaneous, seemingly insatiable requirements: taking and holding land in Kursk and defending land in the Donbas. Given their recent record of melting mass amounts of Russian meat assaults, there is an excellent chance that Ukraine can do both for a very long time.

The fire at the Proletarsk (in Rostov) oil containment facility has been burning for the entire week.

2. If Cash Cows Could Fly

Drones are now hunting helicopters in Ukraine. According to a video released this week, the AFU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) is now testing an FPV (First Person View) drone that goes 165 miles per hour (video here). It is undoubtedly more expensive than the state-of-the-world FPV drones, which cost around $1,000 each. Usually, being expensive would detract from the underlying advantage of FPV technology: its cost per unit. But this drone won’t be replacing cheap FPV drones. This drone will replace anti-aircraft MANPAD missiles like the Raytheon-made Stinger which has a price tag so ridiculous it would make price-gouging “big food” retailers blush.    

The war in Ukraine has made the US Stinger missile, with a previously dormant production line, a cash cow again for Raytheon. In May 2022, Raytheon won a $624 million contract with the US government to produce 1,300 Stingers at around $480,000 each. Last month, Germany said it plans to buy 506 Stingers for the funflation price of $866,000 each. Once again, Ukraine looks to disappoint the military-industrial complex by replicating an expensive military capability (destroying enemy helicopters) for a fraction of the cost.

Will it work? Can Ukraine use ultrafast quadcopters to hunt helicopters and, eventually, fixed-wing aircraft? Last week, the Ukrainian army released the first video of a drone hitting a helicopter in flight. Russia’s premier attack helicopter, the KA-52 Alligator, has a top speed of 200 miles per hour. I asked Joe Sharrock, a former US Army Blackhawk helicopter pilot who flew in Iraq, about the possibility of hitting a fast-moving helicopter with a drone:

“Top speeds in helicopters are rarely reached or even approached. The UH60’s [Blackhawk helicopter] max airspeed is around 180-190 knots, but that is near empty, all doors closed, no wings attached, flying in a straight line, etc. Russian helicopters will be loaded down with troops, gear, extra fuel tanks, or missiles. So a “max speed 165-mph drone” very well could overtake a “max speed 200-mph helicopter” that is loaded or in a precarious position, and they will be in a precarious situation at some point—landing, take-off, dropping off supplies or soldiers, etc. How many dipshits in Iraq got a lucky hit with an RPG [Rocket Propelled Grenade] in this same scenario? Compared to an RPG, an FPV drone would be easy to use. In Iraq, we could fly low and fast so they wouldn't see or hear us coming until we were directly above—FPV drones have built-in observation and loiter abilities. And really, the drone only needs to hit one main or tail rotor blade and the helicopter is going down.”

The Ukrainians have crossed another technological threshold in drone technology. A 165-mph drone may or may not be able to run down a helicopter from behind, but still, it does increase the probability that drone pilots can intercept helicopters given an appropriate pursuit angle. Another issue with attacking helicopters is rotor wash. The downward pressure exerted by the rotors necessitates attacking helicopters from particular angles (top or rear). Regardless, the ability to go faster means the drones have more power to overcome these obstacles. Just as seasoned drone pilots have become very good at hitting tanks with FPVs, the Ukrainians (and Russians) will eventually become dangerously proficient in using these powerful drones to destroy helicopters.

Every week, we see innovations emerge from the war. Drones are going farther and faster, carrying larger payloads and circumventing electronic warfare. The Ukrainians are reinventing warfare from the bottom up. They are not just making old, expensive platforms obsolete but also old, rigid ways of thinking about the source of military capabilities. Cheap, commercial technologies now have the physical capacity to replicate (or thwart) preexisting military platforms, and Western militaries ignore these developments at their peril.

You do not want to be in a metal box, flying or otherwise, on the modern battlefield. Russia has lost around 330 helicopters since the start of the full-scale invasion.  

3. The Secret to Their Success

This week, Ukraine continues to burn Russia to the ground. For quite a while, I have maintained that Ukraine’s best chance to force Russian capitulation is an unrelenting assault on strategic targets. It appears that Ukraine is increasing the number and intensity of its attacks deep into Russia. There are so many things on fire in Russia right now that it’s hard to keep track of them all.

First, near the start of the week, Ukraine attacked an oil containment facility in the Rostov oblast in a town called Proletarsk. Despite the 500 firefighters working on the blaze, the fire has been burning all week and is starting to spread into the nearby town. On Friday, the Ukrainians attacked the site again with another long-range drone. Why attack an already out-of-control inferno? Why not? It’s now so bad they had to send in orthodox priests.

Also, this week, Ukraine decided to maintain its strategic momentum by attacking Moscow. The largest Ukrainian drone attack on the Russian capital to date, Russia reported that it downed all 11 of the intruding drones. Well, good for them. My question is: what did you use to shoot them down? My guess is expensive anti-air missile systems. Welcome to the perverse air-defense reward curve, comrade! Just like what Russia has been doing since the start of the war, Ukraine is going to keep sending cheap drones to deplete Russia’s expensive air defense systems. Soon, if it hasn’t already, this tactic will start to affect other areas of Russia’s defense (Crimea, logistics hubs near the front, and other strategic targets in Russia). For Russia, the strategic pain has just begun.    

There was also a scattering of other targets hit, or attempted, by long-range Ukrainian drones this week. Drones destroyed a Russian ferry carrying petrol near the Kerch bridge in Crimea (apparently, previous attacks on the bridge have made it unsuitable for carrying fuel). Yesterday, multiple Ukrainian drones struck an ammunition depot in southern Russia near Voronezh. Remarkably, the Ukrainians even attempted to hit the Olenya air base 1800 km into northern Russia (near Finland) with one of their Cessna-like A22 Foxbat drones.

Why so many drone attacks into Russia this week? It appears Ukrainian long-range drone production is beginning to hit its stride. In July, Ukraine launched more slow, one-way drones against its enemy than did Russia (520 for Ukraine versus 426 for Russia). Ukraine plans on building 10,000 of these types of drones this year. Oh, it looks like this will be a year of joy!

This week, Zelensky announced a new drone called the “Palianytsia missile-drone.” The Ukrainians may have used this weapon in the Voronezh ammo depot strike yesterday. The bread drone (palianytsia is a loaf of bread in Ukraine) costs $40k and supposedly goes 300 miles. The ATACM missile costs over $1M and goes 300 km. Uh-oh, military-industrial complex…  

4. Fiddling While Rostov Burns

Pop quiz. Your country has just been invaded. Your cities are being attacked by drones. Fires are raging out of control. What do you do? Right—take a vacation!

This week, Vladimir Vladimirovich Pudding took a surprise trip to Chechnya to visit Ramzan Kadyrov and watch his weird son shoot guns. Pudding seems to be drumming up support for his regime by visiting the hinterlands. He also visited Azerbaijan (I shouldn’t say he visited because, in the pictures, it looks like one of his body doubles). Regardless, Putin must be plenty worried about his regional influence in the Caucasus to visit Chechnya after what he did in the 1990s.  

This week, “Putin” visited Chechnya. I’m calling the fat-faced Putin body double “Pudding #2.”

5. Introducing the Flash Traffic Podcast

My friend Eric Lyon, a retired US Army Special Forces colonel, and I discuss the war almost daily. I decided to record our conversations and present them as the Flash Traffic Podcast. Those familiar with military parlance might recognize “flash traffic” as an extremely urgent communique. Ten seconds into the pod, you’ll realize that it’s far from urgent, but I will strive to keep it timely (almost no editing; I just throw it into the void that is the podiverse), informative, entertaining, and most importantly, irreverent. Topics include the war, technology, the military-industrial complex, and politics. Also, expect special guests—that’s right! The Flash Traffic Podcast is available on Spotify [here], Amazon Music [here], Apple Podcasts [here], or WarVector.com.  

6. [Video] This Orc Track Commander Should be Made a Hero of Ukraine

In this week’s video (found here), a Ukrainian Kozak lightly-armored vehicle inadvertently runs headlong into two Russian BMP armored infantry fighting vehicles (IFV). It’s not looking good for the Ukrainians until one of the Russian IFVs unleashes its 30mm autocannon on, you guessed it, the other Russian vehicle. Excellent shooting, comrade!