Explosions: This Week in Ukraine
Exploding ship, exploding HIMARS, exploding NATO, exploding golf cart, and more.
1. Zeroeth by Land, But a Buncheth by Sea
The Ukrainians have done it again. This time they used their surface drones to sink the Russian’s brand new $65 million patrol ship Sergei Kotov near the Kerch Strait. Thanks to the magic of modern technology, we are able to watch the attack from the dual perspectives of the drone and that of some random Russian guy named Victor with male-pattern baldness that just happened to get a video of a drone cruising past on its way to destiny.
Russia has been slow to adapt to the Ukrainian maritime drone threat, and their military incompetence has cost them a third of their Black Sea Fleet to a country without a navy using jet skis equipped with Starlink terminals and GoPro cameras. One of the remarkable things about this sinking is that the Ukrainians attacked the same ship in the same way in September of 2023. I’m sure there were some hard conversations had in the Russian Navy this week:
Russian Admiral: “What steps have you taken over the last six months to prevent another Ukrainian drone attack?”
Russian Captain: “Nothing. I’ve been drunk. And I’ve rigged a lot of naval contracts. And I’ve sold most of my equipment on the black market and kicked 25% back to you.”
Russian Admiral: “Carry on.”
2. National Treasure
It’s been a bad week for US weapons in Ukraine. According to unverified, mostly Russian sources, the Russians took out two Patriot missile launchers near Donetsk, recorded the first observed destruction of a HIMARS ground-to-ground missile system (although at least two HIMARS have been damaged and returned to the US), destroyed the third US Abrams main battle tank in the last week, and forcefully decommissioned a number of US Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles.
There is a short list of what could be happening here: 1. luck; 2. a marked improvement in Russian targeting and engagement (their kill chain); or 3. an increased aggressiveness on the part of the Ukrainians, taking more risks with weapons placements to engage high-value targets or slow the Russian advance. If I had to guess, it’s probably a mix of all three. The basic tactical principle of the war in Ukraine is slowly spreading to rear-echelon assets: if you are on the battlefield, you will be seen, and you will be attacked.
3. Saab Story
As of this week, Sweden is officially the 32nd country to join NATO. Although Sweden had been primarily a “neutral” country for hundreds of years, it has maintained a robust military industrial complex, producing dandy weapons like the Gripen fighter plane and my personal favorite, the Carl-Gustaf recoilless rifle. It’s not a rifle, it’s a bazooka. Just like the Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb (also made by SAAB) is not a bomb; it’s a ground-launched missile (although the US Air Force would have you believe otherwise to keep it out of the hands of the US Army). I digress. The Swedes make terrible cars, but they make great weapons. Thus, Sweden was able to overcome Hungarian resistance to NATO membership, in part by striking a deal with Hungary for the Gripen fighter.
What does this mean for Ukraine’s prospects of becoming a NATO member? Nothing, really. Technically a country with disputed borders and territories cannot join NATO (although waiving this clause is a possibility). NATO countries will not allow Ukraine to join NATO while the war is ongoing. If they did, I believe it would technically trip NATO’s Article V clause, causing the alliance to be at war with Russia. For Ukraine to enter NATO, it would require a unanimous approval by the existing members. If they didn’t make the cut in 2008 or 2014, there is no way there will be a unanimous vote by existing NATO members now.
4. Enemy of My Enemy
Just because Alexei Navalny was anti-Putin does not mean he was pro-Ukraine. The Ukrainians can’t stand Russians, of any flavor. So, when the White House decided it would be a great idea to have Navalny’s widow and Ukraine’s first lady Olena Zelenska sit together at the State of the Union address, of course it was going to be bad. The first clue was the confluence of “White House” and “great idea.” Both women politely declined (“snubbed”) the invitation, clearly not wanting to be associated with the enemy. Or, maybe neither of them wanted to attend the embarrassing, verbal donnybrook into which (thanks primarily to crass, philistine House representatives and a cognitively suppressed President who probably thought he was at a Washington Nationals baseball game) the State of the Union has devolved. Regardless, to increase rapport with Ukraine, US presidential administrations (on both sides) should focus less on attempting to extract personal gain from Ukraine and more on geopolitical and cultural savvy.
5. Et tu, Putin?
This week a Russian missile barely missed Zelensky and the Prime Minister of Greece, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, while they were touring a port in Odesa. The Ukrainians called the Russians “out of their minds, or out of control” for attempting to assassinate a NATO-country dignitary. I seriously doubt this was a targeted killing attempt by Putin. Russian missiles are not that accurate. Regardless, Russian missiles have held the entire country at risk, and the Kremlin has been attacking Odesa since the start of the war. Even though Ukrainians have a saying, “Ukraine at war, Ukraine at dinner,” it’s wise to respect the air raid sirens.
6. [Video] Golf Cart of the Valkyries
WARNING: This week’s video is extremely graphic. This is what happens when Russians joy riding in a cheap, Chinese-made “battle golf cart” meet an anti-tank mine. Hilarity ensues. I went back and forth on whether I should make this video the video of the week, but the people have spoken! It seems to be the most popular Ukraine video this week, and it is so ridiculously dramatic that it’s hard to take it seriously. It’s the Ukraine video equivalent of Katie Britt.