Blood: This Week in Ukraine

Two years of war, spies, crazy SOBs, and more.

1. Ukrainius Rex

It has been exactly two years since the Russian plague fell over Ukraine. In the beginning, just as now, the Western prophets said Ukraine was doomed. But, the Russians were terrible. Kyiv held, Western weapons flooded in, and Russia’s “ten-day takeover plan” turned into a rout. The Ukrainians pushed-back the Russians, away from Kyiv, Kharkiv, Izium, and Kherson. In the process the Russians confirmed (in places like Bucha, Irpin, and Izium) that they are evil. They tortured and killed civilians, they threatened the destruction of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, and they eventually destroyed the Nova Kakhovka dam, flooding hundreds of square miles and causing an ecological disaster. Yet by the end of 2022, the Russians were in retreat, and Ukraine took pride in overwhelming the “second most powerful army in the world.”

Ukraine’s fortunes begin to change by the beginning of 2023. The offensive was stalled, and the war began to resemble static WWI trench-warfare, especially in Bakhmut. The Ukrainian high command concluded that so many Russians were dying there that it was worth the high number of Ukrainian losses to hold the city. The Russians lost at least 20,000 conscripted and contract soldiers in Bakhmut. They only lost 15,000 in Afghanistan in the 1980s. Treasonous Yevgeny Prigozhin attempted a half-assed coup, yet Putin survived. Prigozhin did not. Ukraine’s big offensive in June was a disaster. Last week the Russians finally took the city of Avdiivka.

As the third act of the war begins, it does not look good for our heroes. The Ukrainians are out of ammo. The prideful US government is gridlocked. Putin is trying to out-resolve the Americans, many of who seem blind to the larger threat. Europe, by necessity, is undeterred. Putin is still driving forward politically (an Avdiivka victory, Navalny’s murder, a victorious election forthcoming), economically (petroleum still props up the Russian economy, sanctions still ineffective), and militarily (again Avdiivka, military industrial complex ramping up, recruitment still in the thousands, artillery shells from other countries). Although Ukraine is sinking Russian ships on the murderous seas and Russia is constantly losing airplanes, the prospects of further Ukrainian territorial gains look dim. Still, it is not Ukraine’s fate to be subjugated under Putin’s tyranny. Before ruin sweeps over, the West must lower a deus ex and save Ukraine.

2. Spies Like Us

This August a 28-year-old Russian pilot named Maksim Kuzminov flew his MI-8 helicopter across the border and landed in Ukraine. Nobody was more surprised than his crew members, whom he neglected to inform that he was defecting. At the time, it was a much lauded coup for the Ukrainian military intelligence service who arranged the operation. After his clandestine flight, Kuzminov publically denounced Putin and expounded on how wonderful it was to live in the West (especially with the $500k the Ukrainian government gave him in exchange for his $10 million helo). This week the Russians gunned him down in a Spanish resort town.

Kuzminov turned out to be a major failure for the Ukrainians (although granted, it must be hard to protect the identity of a 28-year-old with half-a-million dollars in a town that is populated by Russian expats and tourists). The Kuzminov affair is indicative of the increasing prowess of the Russian intelligence services. Like everything Russian in this war, they have started out at the buffoon level, and are gradually improving. The Economist looks at the Russian espionage renaissance in: Russian spies are back—and more dangerous than ever.

3. Blood in the Water

The city of Avdiivka has officially fallen to the Russians. But, the Russians don’t seem to be content with finally taking the “gateway to Donetsk.” They can sense the weakness in the Ukrainian front. The pause in Western military assistance has created an “air bubble” in the Ukrainian’s logistics line, crippling their ability to resist Russian advances.

Avdiivka is just the shot across the bow. While the Russian army consolidates their current gains, they continue to press the Ukrainians in four other sectors of the front, including Kreminna, Bakhmut, Marinka, and Robotyne. Also, Russia may have had possible success against the Ukrainian marines on the Dnipro beachhead in Krynky. Even with their ridiculous casualty rates, I doubt if the Russians are going to let up any time soon.

This week Joe Biden called Putin “a crazy SOB.” Anyone who watched the recent Putin-Carlson interview would tell you that Putin is not crazy, but a rational actor with a penchant for bullshit. One sombich that is crazy is former Russian “president” and Putin’s talking meat stick, Dmitry Medvedev, who is already gloating about soon taking Kyiv and Odesa. Too bad for the Russians they don’t have enough landing craft left to assault Odesa by sea.

The Russians feel the Ukrainian weakness, and at this point the Ukrainians have no sufficient indigenous capability to prevent the Russian army from methodically, slowly, overwhelming Ukrainian forces. Western military assistance is, of course, the only solution. But, it’s not always optimized for the country that’s fighting. “There is a tendency for Western assistance to reflect the war that Western policymakers and planners would prefer to fight, rather than the war Ukraine’s military is fighting.” In the latest Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) opinion article, Jahara Matisek, Will Reno, and yours truly look at how we can better help Ukraine in Weathering the Storm: Western Security Assistance on the Defensive in Ukraine.

4. Having a Bad Air Day

I feel like I just wrote this exact thing a couple of weeks ago. The Russians just lost another $330 million A-50 (Russia’s AWACS equivalent) over the Sea of Azov. Apparently the orcs flew the same combination of A-50 and Ilyushin Il-22 airborne command plane (possibly also destroyed or damaged), in the same flight path. Wait, it gets better. This time it looks like perhaps the Russians shot down these planes. To paraphrase one sarcastic Twitter denizen, “if the Russians can shoot down their own planes like this, think of what they could do to NATO!” Uh, nothing? This shoot down tops off a bad week for the Russian VKS (their air force). They have lost eight aircraft in seven days, including fighters and fighter-bombers. None of this bodes well for the VKS on the eve of the Ukrainians getting F-16s this summer.  

5. [Video] Entering and Breaking

This week’s video is of drones doing what drones do. The Russians foolishly put all their stuff in a storage unit, including what originally was reported as one of their much lauded “Terminator” anti-tank vehicles (turns out it was an engineering track). Regardless, these vehicles will not be back. This video adds evidence to the idea that neither side can really mass close to the front.

6. [Bonus Video] House to House

Thanks to GoPro helmet-mounted cameras, this is the most documented war in human history. I have watched videos of the war for almost two years now, and they just keep getting more vivid. This week’s bonus video is of the Ukrainian Third Assault Brigade in Avdiivka prior to the fall of the city. Normally I like to keep the videos short, but this one, at 13 minutes, gives a good picture of what it’s like fighting the orcs. Warning: intense.

7. [Bonus Bonus Video] A Father’s Loss

You’ll have to excuse the extra videos this week, but I think everyone needs to see this, especially those who don’t understand why the US needs to continue to fund Ukraine.

8. [Bonus...you get the idea Video] The 60-Ton Unicorn Arrives!

I’m not trying to turn this newsletter into the At The Movies with Siskel and Ebert of YouTube, but I had to throw this one in last minute. I never thought I would see it, but there seems to be video evidence of the US Abrams main battle tank actually fighting in Ukraine. It’s probably a deep fake.