Beset: This Week in Ukraine

Blinken’s histrionic personality disorder, orc-meat deluge along the border, burning down Crimea, giving a Fico sample, and, of course, the video of the week.

1. Ukraine at War, Ukraine at Dinner

While eastern Ukraine smolders in death and dismay, many in the west are enjoying a peaceful night at the cafe. Minus the irritating ballistic missile attacks killing innocent women and children, the restaurants and bars in downtown Kyiv, on the Khreshchatyk, are vibrant and alive with the arrival of spring. Thus the saying, “Ukraine at war, Ukraine at dinner.” While Ukrainian society has struggled with the guilt of this dichotomy, the American Secretary of State seems to have no problem partying it up into the wee hours (the curfew in Kyiv is midnight).        

This week while on a state visit to Ukraine, Antony Blinken decided to sing a cringe-worthy rendition of Neil Young in a Kyiv dive bar (if you hate yourself and must see the video, it’s here). Although many seem to be up-in-arms over this “guitar diplomacy,” I couldn’t care less about what Blinken does in his spare time. Was it tone-deaf? Sure (in multiple ways, har har. My apologies to actual tone-deaf individuals, thank you for your sacrifice to this particularly weak pun). Are politicians and diplomats attention whores? They sure are (my apologies to actual prostitutes). But, I would have liked to see his performance balanced with a body-armor-wearing “Ukraine at war” visit to the front line. I get it, Antony, you have to drive, and the front is hundreds of miles away. Conveniently, the front may be coming closer to Kyiv (see below).

Is there any actual news here? Maybe. Blinken pledged the usual “unwavering support” for Ukraine’s struggle (minus the six months it took to pass the current aid bill and the obvious political impossibility of passing another one in the foreseeable future). When pressed on the Ukrainian use of US weapons to attack targets inside Russia, Blinken expressed a measure of strategic ambiguity, "We've not enabled or encouraged strikes outside of Ukraine, but ultimately, Ukraine has to make decisions for itself about how it's going to conduct this war." I still hold that the US is secretly prohibiting their use inside Russia, especially given the recent ATACMS strike on Crimea (see below) versus, for example, attacking masses of Russians assembling just across the Ukrainian border near Kharkiv, the sanctuary of which provides the Russians with a significant operational advantage.

The orcs took over the central hospital in Vovchansk. The Ukrainians pulverized it. Yes, there is a major hospital building somewhere in this picture. Watch the video here.

2. Spread ‘Em

Russia continues to apply pressure along the front this week. In northeastern Kharkiv, the NYT published an article entitled, “Russians Poured Over Ukraine’s Border. There Was Little to Stop Them.” There were reports that the Territorial Defense troops defending the area relinquished their posts on contract with the orcs. Ukrainian prepared-defenses, trenches, and other fighting positions were substandard and inadequate. And while this week the orcs, in true orc fashion, apparently lost a record 1,740 casualties in one day, there doesn’t seem to be any slowing of the momentum. During his visit this week to China, Putin remarked that he’s interested in developing a buffer zone along the border, not taking the city of Kharkiv. It’s doubtful that the Kremlin would want to undergo such an adventure against a city as large as Kharkiv, as they will probably opt to simply raze it with artillery.

The Russians seem to be probing the Ukrainian defenses for weakness. Currently, fighting in the borderlands looks centralized in a village named Vovchansk, located three miles from the Russian border. Possibly more significant, the Russians also made an excursion across the border near the northeast city of Sumy, 15 miles from the border and roughly 170 miles from Kyiv. President Zelensky warned that this surprise attack throughout the border is only the “first wave” of a renewed Russian offensive. As I’ve said, the orcs have 2000 miles from which to choose, making the defense of the Ukrainian border nearly untenable.

I hope this guy is wearing hearing protection.

3. Crimea Burning

Things are going swimmingly in Crimea. On Monday, Ukrainian British-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles pounded an air defense radar site in Crimea. On Tuesday, Ukraine launched US ATACMs against the Russian Belbek air base, destroying at least three fighter jets and one S-400 air defense system (the Russian’s “unstoppable” missile system). On Friday, Ukraine followed up by sending a massive drone attack against targets in Sevastopol. Whereas the land battle is lacking, these Ukrainian strategic attacks continue to hurt the Russians.

The theory of victory for the Ukrainians may continue to lie in their ability to strike high-value targets, including air assets, naval ships, and petroleum plants. While the Russians might not value human life and are continuing to throw men into the meat grinder at the front, they may value their economy. Rebuilding these lost strategic assets will take a toll on the Russians for decades. How much will it take before Russia wakes up to the fact that their industries are in ruin? Half? Just like the “Dead Russian Fallacy” in which a certain number of casualties will force Russia to negotiate, it’s impossible to estimate the degree to which their strategic military assets and petroleum industrial base must disintegrate before Russia admits defeat.          

4. His Fico Score is Low

This week was the worst attack on a European leader in decades. According to one Slovakian, "society has two poles ... There are people who love (Fico) and there are others who hate him."Apparently, an assailant hated him enough to shoot Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico (pronounced “Feetso” if anyone actually cares) multiple times (Fico is currently in stable but serious condition).

Fico ran on a pro-Russian, populist platform, and has condemned European countries for supplying aid to Ukraine, in other words, he’s a major shit stain. But, that shouldn’t, necessarily, qualify him for an immediate life reduction procedure. According to one Slovak, “We are here mainly because the opposition’s hatred of this government has come to such a point that a psychopath who is an assassin has been created and has (tried to) assassinate Prime Minister Robert Fico.”

Thank the gods nothing like this could happen in the United States! We Americans are adept at dealing with our political strife in a normal, rational, adult way that eschews violence and idiocy. Oh, by the way, here is a video snippet from this week’s hour-long argument between Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) and Moscow Marjorie Taylor Greene over U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett’s possibly fake eyelashes. Never was there a more Jeffersonian debate.

The preferred machine gun platform.

5. [Video] Just Because You Can...

This week’s video shows a Ukrainian “baba yaga” (large quadcopter drone) equipped with a machine gun. I have a problem with this design. First, in terms of accuracy, this thing is the drone equivalent of a Congolese 12-year-old shooting an AK-47 over his head. Second, machine gun ammo is heavy; they’ll have to keep the caliber low. How far do you think you’ll get, flying so slow with this gun? I don’t predict we will see much of this drone on the battlefield. Now, air-launched Javelins on the other hand...