Anti-Hero: This Week in Ukraine

The Putin interview, Gen Z dismissed, trouble in Avdiivka, and more!

1. Dead Man Talking

This week Tucker Carlson became the first Western “journalist” to interview Vladimir Putin since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Beyond the mindless, and seemingly endless, bloviating about the historical sovereignty of Ukraine as a legitimate state, there are a few tangible talking points I would like to address. Alas, it turns out there were too many talking points in the over-two hour interview to address here, so shortly I will be sending my breakdown of the interview in a separate newsletter.

2. The Dr. Is Out

It is now official, President Zelensky has fired General Zaluzhny. There seems to be no hard feelings as this video shows the two hugging, maybe a bit excessively, in a “the general doth hug too much” sort of way. Gen Z’s heir apparent is Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky--a hard charger that nobody seems to like. Oh well, c'est la Z.      

As a side note, Gen Z is also apparently Dr. Z: “Zaluzhnyi recently completed a significant academic achievement by defending his dissertation in Law and earning a Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.) degree in late December 2023...Details regarding the specific topic of Zaluzhnyi's dissertation remain confidential, and classified as a matter of state secret concerning defense, state security, and law enforcement activities.” Of course it is. I get that the only good dissertation is a finished dissertation, but completing and defending your thesis while commanding an army at war is slightly preposterous. @PhDSnob.

3. The Tank is Dead, So What?

One of the major debates about this war is about the future of armored vehicles on the battlefield. Almost every major battle of this war (including Brovary, Siverskyi Donets, Vuhledar, Mala Tokmachka, and now Avdiivka) has confirmed that you do not want to be rolling around in a large metal box in Ukraine.  

But, that has not stopped Russia from sending their armored columns to their doom. Reportedly, the Russians lost 52 armored vehicles in one day this week in Avdiivka. Unfortunately, these losses may be irrelevant as Russia seems poised to take the city in their first major victory since capturing Bakhmut in May of 2023. The Ukrainians in Avdiivka are having a difficult time holding off the Russian onslaught and are rationing their resources. If the Ukrainians lose Avdiivka, this will be the first major physical manifestation of the delay in supplying their military because of US political dithering. In Avdiivka, and elsewhere along the front, time is not on the Ukrainians’ side.

4. You’re in the Army Now

It may surprise you to find out that while Ukraine has been fighting an existential conflict against a former super power, their conscription minimum-age has been locked at 27. The average age of the Ukrainian soldier is 43, and their military is having a hard time recruiting. While the Ukrainian parliament (Verkhovna Rada) is debating lowering the conscription age to 25, front line units are hurting for soldiers. Gen Z told Zelensky that the Ukraine’s army needs 500,000 more troops, immediately, and this was a point of the contention between the two. The WaPo’s Isabelle Khurshudyan and Anastacia Galouchka discuss Ukraine’s problems with manning in their article Front-line Ukrainian infantry units report acute shortage of soldiers. According to one Ukrainian commander interviewed for the article, “‘There’s no positive outlook. Absolutely none. It’s going to end in a lot of death, a global failure. And most likely, I think, the front will collapse somewhere like it did for the enemy in 2022, in the Kharkiv region.’”

5. Ground Control to Major Putinkhuylo

So it seems that the Russians have finally caught on to using Starlink. The satellite communications network was vital in Ukraine’s defense of Kyiv and most of their military operations in general. Most units, down to the squad level, will not conduct operations unless they have comms through Starlink. Throughout the war zone I saw Starlink terminals mounted on top of vehicles--one squad I interviewed north of Orikhiv, in the Zaporizhia Oblast, had two Starlink terminals, just in case.

Now the Russians are using Starlink. It’s a cheap, easy, and relatively secure form of comms. It’s available everywhere, unless Elon Musk (the CEO of Starlink) decides to turn it off. Judging from the ease at which Musk denied Starlink use along the Crimean coast when the Ukrainians attempted to attack the Sevastopol Naval Base with Unmanned Surface Drones, he should have no problem “geofencing” (denying the use of in certain locations) Starlink terminals in Russian controlled areas of Ukraine.

6. Welcome to the Party!

It looks like Israel may have finally gotten the memo on using FPV (First Person View) drones to kill people and break things. In this video  we see what looks like an FPV drone swoop in to hit the vehicle of a Hezbollah military commander in Lebanon (strike footage starts at 33 seconds). This is the first time I’ve seen a video of the IDF using an FPV drone in this manner--I think they are probably just more comfortable taking out an entire city block with artillery. Likewise, I’m still perplexed at why Hamas has not been using FPV drones from the start of this war. This is why they say, “war is a learning competition.”

7. [Video] Russians Doing Russian Things

In this week’s video we find Russians playing a game of chicken on the fields of Donetsk.